New Beginnings

The Power of Failure

In Daniel Kahnemann's 'Thinking, Fast and Slow', he lays out a concept he labels as "What you see is all there is":

"This theory states that when the mind makes decisions, it deals primarily with Known Knowns, phenomena it has already observed. It rarely considers Known Unknowns, phenomena that it knows to be relevant but about which it has no information. Finally it appears oblivious to the possibility of Unknown Unknowns, unknown phenomena of unknown relevance."

Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker were the top 2 picks in the 2014 NBA draft. Two can't-miss prospects that appear to have missed (so far). Both players were all but written off prior to their age 24 seasons due to their antiquated style of play that was no longer in vogue in the modern NBA. The Known Known in this case would be what we have seen on the court from Wiggins and Parker, and our determination from what we saw was that these were not winning basketball players. Poor vision, ball stopping, suspect defense, and pull up 20 footers do not a winning formula make.

There are 30 teams in the NBA, which means that by extension, there are only 30 players who can be considered a team's first option. In the case of these two players, respectively, Minnesota had Towns and later Jimmy Butler; Milwaukee had Giannis. There was no longer a need for Wiggins or Parker to be the players they had always been; rather, in order to become positive contributors, they had to adapt.

Coach and Trainer David Thorpe has said many times that outside of the top handful of players, individual success is highly predicated on a player’s situation, fit and role. That is, LeBron is going to be LeBron no matter where he is drafted, who his coach is, or who he plays with, but the other 99% of players are a ball of clay that must be molded into the shape of a contributing NBA player.

Failure can be the springboard from which players succeed and grow, but in order to do so, a player must first be willing to accept that he has failed. Ryan Saunders got Wiggins to see the value in replacing inefficient shots with more efficient ones, and he is now taking 58% of his shot attempts either at the rim or from three vs his career rate of 47%.

Where many coaches before had seen Jabari Parker as a player through whom the ball should run, Lloyd Pearce saw Jabari Parker and thought he should be molded in a new way. Jabari Parker should function as more of a traditional big man. The amount of time that Parker has the ball per touch and his dribbles per touch are both at levels way below his career average and his paint touches are at a career high level. We cannot know all of what goes on behind the scenes of an NBA team, such as how a player or team is instructed to play, and it appears as though this is where both Pearce and Saunders have made a case that what goes unseen can be just as important as what is seen. But a coach cannot coach a player who is unwilling to listen, and this is where the prior failings of the players comes into play, as it is doubtful that these players would have been willing to accept the coaching they needed had they not first endured failure.

When Gary Payton was entering his age 24 season, he was coming off a year in which he had averaged just 9 points per game. Bruce Bowen was playing basketball in France. Kyle Lowry had started just 30 NBA games and had yet to average double figures in points. Some players take time to find their niche. Here's to hoping that Wiggins and Parker have found theirs.

Historical Outliers

Rebounding Guards

You will find just two guards among the top 50 players in Rebounding Percentage so far this season; Luka Doncic at 31st  and Dejounte Murray at 29th. Murray specifically is having a historic rebounding season for a guard as his current rate of 10.8 rebounds per 75 posessions ranks second all time behind Russell Westbrook's 2017 season.

Harden can't stop, won't stop

Michael Jordan has 6 of the top 10 seasons in points per 75 posessions with his famed 1987 season coming in at third place all time at 34.8 points per 75. The top 2 spots? Those belong to James Harden with his current season slightly ahead of his 2019 at a whopping 36.4 points per 75. 

One of the Best Shooters of All Time

Karl-Anthony Towns is a 7ft tall Center. He also happens to be one of the greatest shooters of all time. Just 32 players have attempted greater than 1000 career three pointers and made them at greater than 40%. Towns is the only player on this list to play primarily as a power forward or center.

Promising Young Centers

Thomas Bryant

If you squint, you can see the outlines of a potential 3 and D center (solid FT%, 30% career from three and 1.6 blocks per 36 minutes). What you do not need to squint to see is his ability to finish inside the paint, as last season he ranked in the 98th percentile amongst big men in field goal percentage inside of 4 feet. 

Ivica Zubac

• Second in the league in rebounds per 75 possessions
• Seventh amongst centers in points per 75 possessions
• Fifth among Centers in blocks per 75 possessions
• 61% FG | 85% FT

Moritz Wagner

Here's the list of all the players averaging 20 points, 10 rebounds, 1 three, and 1 block per 75 possessions. 

What do Bryant, Zubac, and Wagner have in common? They all started their careers as members of the LA Lakers, who were able to flip these three promising young players for...Mike Muscala and a bit of cap relief.