NBA - Cities Edition

Where do the best players in the NBA come from? In order to answer that we have created 17 different teams and quantified their team strength using each players Crafted Plus Minus. We started with Nate Duncan and Danny Lereaux's rosters from a recent Dunc'd On podcast exploring this very topic and made slight adjustments from there (sorry Dallas, no Pascal Siakam for you).

Some Items of Note:

  • LA/Southern California produces an amazing array of top line talent. Their potential starting 5 of Jrue, Harden, PG, Kawhi and Dedmon is absurd and leaves Russ, Klay and DeRozan as bench options.
  • Indiana truly lives up to it's billing as a hoops mad state as it has no less than 17 players currently on NBA rosters. Not bad for a state of 6.7 million (the 5th smallest region in this exercise).
  • Despite having a humongous pool of humans to pull from, Florida finishes last in this "tournament" and have almost no top line talent (their second best player is JOHN HENSON!)

Teams

Players

Nitty Gritty: We took each team's roster and broke it down into ~ a 10 man rotation and assigned each player a value based upon their Crafted Plus Minus from just prior to the current NBA season. We then ran each team through FiveThirtyEight's projection formula to answer the question 'how many game this team would win if they were in the NBA?'.

The Teams

*offRating: projected NBA offensive rating

*defRating: projected NBA defensive rating

*netRating: projected NBA net rating

*projWins: projected wins if this team were in the NBA

*winsperpop: wins divided by population

Click a team to load their roster below

TeamPopulationoffRatingdefRatingnetRatingprojWinsWinsPerPop
1 Southern California 24.1 121.8 107.1 14.7 70 2.9
2 NYNJ 17.5 117.1 108.4 8.7 61 3.49
3 North Carolina 10.4 114.8 108.3 6.5 57 5.48
4 Chicago 12.7 110.9 105.5 5.4 55 4.33
5 Indiana 6.7 111.2 108.6 2.6 48 7.16
6 DMV 7.1 110.1 107.7 2.4 47 6.62
7 Michigan 9.9 111.9 110.1 1.8 46 4.65
8 Houston 7.5 108.7 108.2 0.5 42 5.6
9 Dallas 7.5 108.8 108.3 0.5 42 5.6
10 Ohio 11.7 111.6 111.2 0.4 42 3.59
11 Atlanta 6.5 110.1 109.9 0.2 41 6.31
12 Northern California 15.5 111.5 108.3 0 49 3.16
13 Missouri 6.1 109.8 110.7 -0.9 39 6.39
14 New England 16.5 107.5 109 -1.5 37 2.24
15 Philly 6.5 108.9 110.8 -1.9 36 5.54
16 Washington 7.5 107.6 112.1 -4.5 30 4
17 Florida 21.3 105.2 115.4 -10.2 18 0.85

Southern California Rotation

NameTeamoffPlusMinusdefPlusMinusprojPlusMinusMinutes
Mike Conley Indiana 3.03 0.12 3.15 32
George Hill Indiana -0.13 0.86 0.73 16
Eric Gordon Indiana 1.89 -1.29 0.6 24
Gary Harris Indiana 0.55 -0.04 0.51 24
Jeff Teague Indiana 0.23 -0.97 -0.74 0
Gordon Hayward Indiana 0.65 -0.3 0.35 32
Jaren Jackson Jr. Indiana -2.4 2.03 -0.37 30
Glenn Robinson III Indiana -2.59 0.25 -2.34 10
Cody Zeller Indiana -0.26 1.3 1.04 24
Courtney Lee Indiana -1.51 -0.85 -2.36 0
E'Twaun Moore Indiana -0.53 -1.22 -1.75 0
Romeo Langford Indiana -1.29 -1.44 -2.73 0
Trey Lyles Indiana -0.93 -0.16 -1.09 14
Dylan Windler Indiana -0.68 -0.19 -0.87 10
Kyle Guy Indiana -0.7 -0.69 -1.39 0
Caleb Swanigan Indiana -2.59 0.19 -2.4 0
Mason Plumlee Indiana -0.94 1.47 0.53 24
Jrue Holiday Southern California 2.38 1.64 4.02 26
Russell Westbrook Southern California 2.86 0.83 3.69 28
Lonzo Ball Southern California -1 2.12 1.12 0
Allen Crabbe Southern California -1.03 -0.71 -1.74 0
DeMar DeRozan Southern California 0.76 -0.72 0.04 12
James Harden Southern California 6.77 -0.61 6.16 32
Klay Thompson Southern California 1.25 -1.09 0.16 28
Paul George Southern California 3.43 2.12 5.55 34
Kawhi Leonard Southern California 3.34 0.46 3.8 32
Delon Wright Southern California -0.02 0.27 0.25 0
Tony Snell Southern California -0.73 -1.18 -1.91 0
Trevor Ariza Southern California -0.87 -0.65 -1.52 0
Dewayne Dedmon Southern California -1.24 1.69 0.45 22
Jordan Bell Southern California -1.89 0.36 -1.53 16
Tyson Chandler Southern California -2.81 2.04 -0.77 10
Aaron Holiday Southern California -0.31 0.12 -0.19 0
Justin Holiday Southern California -1.89 0.29 -1.6 0
Kemba Walker NYNJ 3.69 -0.72 2.97 28
Kyrie Irving NYNJ 3.89 -0.42 3.47 32
Donovan Mitchell NYNJ 1.31 0.93 2.24 32
Danny Green NYNJ 1.44 1.53 2.97 26
Tobias HArris NYNJ 0.53 -0.31 0.22 24
Karl Anthony Towns NYNJ 3.48 0.64 4.12 34
Joakim Noah NYNJ -2.6 1.2 -1.4 0
Lance Stephenson NYNJ -1 -2.2 -3.2 0
JR Smith NYNJ -0.8 -1.4 -2.2 0
Kenneth Faried NYNJ -0.5 -0.4 -0.9 0
Thomas Bryant NYNJ -0.03 0.48 0.45 14
Moe Harkless NYNJ -0.53 1.37 0.84 16
Jonathan Isaac NYNJ -1.65 1.63 -0.02 24
Eric Paschall NYNJ -1.26 -0.31 -1.57 10
Mo Bamba NYNJ -4.5 1.27 -3.23 0
Trey Burke Ohio 0.58 -1.85 -1.27 16
Terry Rozier Ohio -1.32 0.09 -1.23 24
CJ McCollum Ohio 2.07 -0.82 1.25 32
Luke Kennard Ohio -0.11 -0.73 -0.84 30
Shane Larkin Ohio 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 8
Darius Bazley Ohio -2.09 -0.47 -2.56 16
Jakarr Sampson Ohio -1 -0.3 -1.3 12
LeBron James Ohio 4.44 0.78 5.22 34
Larry Nance Jr. Ohio -0.25 1.61 1.36 32
Omari Spellman Ohio -1.58 -0.94 -2.52 26
Gary Trent Jr. Ohio -1.62 -0.67 -2.29 10
Chris Paul North Carolina 2.52 1.8 4.32 30
Steph Curry North Carolina 6.54 0.39 6.93 32
Seth Curry North Carolina -0.72 -0.37 -1.09 10
Reggie Bullock North Carolina -0.29 -1.07 -1.36 18
John Wall North Carolina 0.75 -0.35 0.4 18
Coby White North Carolina -0.47 -1.78 -2.25 0
Brandon Ingram North Carolina -0.72 -0.36 -1.08 28
Kent Bazemore North Carolina -2 0.35 -1.65 16
PJ Tucker North Carolina -0.67 1.24 0.57 26
Montrezl Harrell North Carolina 1.12 -0.36 0.76 26
Ish Smith North Carolina -0.35 -0.46 -0.81 0
Hassan Whiteside North Carolina -1.29 2.69 1.4 10
Dennis Smith North Carolina -1.5 -0.19 -1.69 0
Harry Giles North Carolina -1.83 -0.12 -1.95 0
Bam Adebayo North Carolina -1.04 2.11 1.07 26
Pat Beverley Chicago 0.89 1.05 1.94 26
Fred VanVleet Chicago 0.87 0.27 1.14 26
Derrick Rose Chicago 0.94 -1.94 -1 14
Kendrick Nunn Chicago -1.3 -0.9 -2.2 0
Robert Covington Chicago -0.51 3.67 3.16 30
Andre Iguodala Chicago 0.1 1.6 1.7 22
Jabari Parker Chicago -0.81 -0.73 -1.54 20
Anthony Davis Chicago 2.46 3 5.46 34
Richaun Holmes Chicago -0.95 0.61 -0.34 18
Frank Kaminsky Chicago 0.29 -0.8 -0.51 12
Meyers Leonard Chicago -0.78 -1.14 -1.92 6
Jevon Carter Chicago -2.01 0.03 -1.98 6
Sterling Brown Chicago -2.16 -0.59 -2.75 10
Evan Turner Chicago -2.26 -0.51 -2.77 10
Jahlil Okafor Chicago -2.24 -0.3 -2.54 0
Iman Shumpert Chicago -0.9 0.3 -0.6 0
Jalen Brunson Chicago 0.44 -1.42 -0.98 6
Markelle Fultz DMV -1.74 0.29 -1.45 20
Quinn Cook DMV -1.47 -2.86 -4.33 14
Victor Oladipo DMV 1.07 2.01 3.08 32
Josh Hart DMV -1.2 1.05 -0.15 20
Kevin Durant DMV 4.74 0 4.74 34
Will Barton DMV -1.02 -1.33 -2.35 20
Rudy Gay DMV -0.13 1.21 1.08 18
Jerami Grant DMV -0.82 1.05 0.23 26
Dorian Finney-Smith DMV -0.99 0.18 -0.81 10
Jerian Grant DMV -0.8 -0.6 -1.4 0
Ed Davis DMV -1.87 2.41 0.54 24
Carmelo Anthony DMV 0 -1.5 -1.5 0
Jeff Green DMV -0.47 -0.99 -1.46 22
Michael Beasley DMV -0.9 -1.5 -2.4 0
Monte Morris Michigan 0.51 -0.47 0.04 26
Bryn Forbes Michigan -0.22 -1.07 -1.29 16
Edmond Sumner Michigan -1.74 -0.18 -1.92 6
Denzel Valentine Michigan -0.78 -0.11 -0.89 16
Wilson Chandler Michigan -0.98 -0.55 -1.53 20
Draymond Green Michigan 0.3 3.63 3.93 34
Al Horford Michigan 1.21 1.72 2.93 32
Kyle Kuzma Michigan 0.56 -0.64 -0.08 26
Devin Booker Michigan 2.4 -2.78 -0.38 34
Miles Bridges Michigan -0.32 -0.76 -1.08 24
Josh Jackson Michigan -2.63 -0.61 -3.24 6
De'Aaron Fox Houston 0.43 0.05 0.48 34
Alex Caruso Houston -0.69 0.71 0.02 24
Carsen Edwards Houston -0.66 -1.89 -2.55 20
Jimmy Butler Houston 1.99 1.32 3.31 34
Justin Jackson Houston -0.76 -0.73 -1.49 24
Justice Winslow Houston -0.6 1.83 1.23 32
DeAndre Jordan Houston -1.37 1.89 0.52 28
Jarred Vanderbilt Houston -2.14 0.85 -1.29 20
Gerald Green Houston 0.14 -2.08 -1.94 24
Marcus Smart Dallas 0.35 1.05 1.4 30
DJ Augustin Dallas 0.7 -1.08 -0.38 24
Royce O'Neale Dallas -1.58 1.6 0.02 24
CJ Miles Dallas -1.11 -0.62 -1.73 18
Emmanuel Mudiay Dallas -0.77 -2.12 -2.89 10
Terrance Ferguson Dallas -1.41 -0.79 -2.2 16
Danuel House Dallas 0.15 -0.27 -0.12 26
LaMarcus Aldridge Dallas 0.86 0.99 1.85 28
Myles Turner Dallas -1.37 3.13 1.76 30
Julius Randle Dallas 0.85 -1.22 -0.37 24
Zhaire Smith Dallas -0.48 -0.41 -0.89 10
Lou Williams Atlanta 3.01 -3.38 -0.37 22
Malcolm Brogdon Atlanta 1.31 -0.22 1.09 30
Jeremy Lamb Atlanta 0.54 0.15 0.69 26
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Atlanta 0.7 -1.56 -0.86 14
Jaylen Brown Atlanta -0.8 0.78 -0.02 32
Jae Crowder Atlanta 0.46 -0.61 -0.15 16
Al-Farouq Aminu Atlanta 0.31 1.58 1.89 22
Wendell Carter Atlanta -3.35 2.6 -0.75 20
Derrick Favors Atlanta -0.59 2.07 1.48 20
Dwight Howard Atlanta -1.68 1.24 -0.44 8
Collin Sexton Atlanta -0.69 -3.97 -4.66 14
Josh Okogie Atlanta -0.82 0.44 -0.38 16
Damian Lillard Northern California 5.31 -0.32 4.99 34
Jeremy Lin Northern California -0.8 -0.6 -1.4 30
Aaron Gordon Northern California 0.38 0.9 1.28 32
Ryan Anderson Northern California -1.2 -0.9 -2.1 22
DJ Wilson Northern California -1.92 0.61 -1.31 24
Ivan Rabb Northern California -1.02 -0.69 -1.71 16
Marquese Chriss Northern California -2.5 -1.2 -3.7 6
Tyler Johnson Northern California -0.74 -0.42 -1.16 32
Brook Lopez Northern California 0.07 2.49 2.56 26
Robin Lopez Northern California -1.93 0.52 -1.41 18
Shaq Harrison Missouri -2.18 0.4 -1.78 28
Alec Burks Missouri -1.29 -1.45 -2.74 18
Pat McCaw Missouri -2.68 -0.84 -3.52 12
Ben McLemore Missouri -1.62 -0.62 -2.24 16
Landry Shamet Missouri 1.26 -1.52 -0.26 22
Bradley Beal Missouri 3.15 -0.99 2.16 34
Jayson Tatum Missouri 0.65 1.73 2.38 32
Otto Porter Missouri 1.38 0.91 2.29 26
Anthony Tolliver Missouri -1.31 -0.35 -1.66 30
Michael Porter Jr. Missouri -0.95 0.05 -0.9 22
Kris Dunn New England -1.32 -0.13 -1.45 30
Pat Connaughton New England -0.17 -0.36 -0.53 28
Jake LAyman New England -1.18 -0.26 -1.44 30
Bruce Brown New England 0.94 -1.94 -1 22
Terrance Mann New England -1.37 -0.22 -1.59 12
Shabazz Napier New England 0.2 0.06 0.26 18
Wayne Selden New England -2.3 -2.7 -5 0
Noah Vonleh New England -1.39 1.05 -0.34 24
Nerlens Noel New England -3.01 3.02 0.01 18
Andre Drummond New England 0.49 1.54 2.03 30
Kevin Huerter New England 0.89 -0.42 0.47 28
Dejounte Murray Washington -0.73 1.86 1.13 34
Isaiah Thomas Washington 0.79 -1.83 -1.04 22
Avery Bradley Washington -1.84 -1.11 -2.95 28
Zach Lavine Washington 0.7 -1.5 -0.8 34
Matisse Thybulle Washington -0.95 0.7 -0.25 34
Kevin Porter Jr. Washington -2.27 -1.09 -3.36 20
Joe Harris Washington 0.37 -1.68 -1.31 34
Marvin Williams Washington -0.43 0.39 -0.04 34
Anfernee Simons Florida -1.97 -1.58 -3.55 22
Austin Rivers Florida -0.25 -1.46 -1.71 18
Tim Hardaway Jr. Florida 0.48 -1.45 -0.97 26
Rodney McGruder Florida -1.23 -0.39 -1.62 18
Grayson Allen Florida -2.31 -3.41 -5.72 16
Brandon Knight Florida -0.7 -1.2 -1.9 0
Kevin Knox Florida -2.58 -2.93 -5.51 18
Chandler Parsons Florida -1.52 -0.54 -2.06 16
Nassir Little Florida -1.99 -1.11 -3.1 24
Vince Carter Florida -0.73 -0.03 -0.76 16
John Collins Florida 1.32 -0.68 0.64 34
John Henson Florida -1.24 1.27 0.03 16
Tony Bradley Florida -1.82 -0.59 -2.41 16
Udonis Haslem Florida -2.89 -0.03 -2.92 0

The Bracket

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