Playoff Power Rankings: Why the Celtics Will Win the 2024 NBA Championship
April 18, 2024I'm calling it now. The Celtics will win the 2024 NBA Championship. Why? Because fact's, thats why! Now, I'm no Miss Cleo, but I can use data from the past to inform the future. But, before we get into all of that, let's rank all the playoff teams according to a proprietary metric I am calling "How good is u". What I have done is take each team's offensive, defensive, and net rating from Cleaning the Glass, and combined it with a team's "Healthy" Net Rating, ie, how good are you in games where your best players actually played, as well as a net rating for how good you are when your best 2-3 players (lineup net rating, from the great pbpstats) are on the floor. The weighting for this, called Power, will be 3 parts Cleaning the Glass net rating, 2 parts healthy net rating, and 1 part lineup net rating. Why use this, instead of just a teams normal net rating? Well, because for the playoffs, when Thibs is going to play his "guys" 40 minutes per game, we really don't care how good your team is with Taj Gibson or DaQuan Jeffries on the floor. We also don't care (much) what your team did with RJ Barrett or Immanuel Quickley. We want to know how good your team might be going forward.
| Team | PowerO | PowerD | Power | 3ManO | 3ManD | 3Man | HealthyO | HealthyD | Healthy | CTGO | CTGD | CTG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 122.5 | 112.3 | 10.2 | 122.9 | 113.3 | 9.6 | 121.2 | 112.1 | 9.1 | 123.2 | 112 | 11.2 |
| Oklahoma City | 120.2 | 111.6 | 8.6 | 122.8 | 111.1 | 11.7 | 119.2 | 111.1 | 8.1 | 120 | 112 | 8 |
| New York | 119.5 | 111.3 | 8.2 | 124.6 | 101.9 | 22.7 | 118.1 | 112.2 | 5.9 | 118.8 | 113.9 | 4.9 |
| Denver | 120.8 | 113.5 | 7.3 | 128 | 113.8 | 14.2 | 119.8 | 113.7 | 6.1 | 119.1 | 113.3 | 5.8 |
| Philadelphia | 120.1 | 113.0 | 7.1 | 124.7 | 112.9 | 11.8 | 122.5 | 111.3 | 11.2 | 116.9 | 114.1 | 2.8 |
| Minnesota | 117.1 | 110.0 | 7.1 | 121.4 | 114.1 | 7.3 | 116.4 | 109.6 | 6.8 | 116.1 | 108.9 | 7.2 |
| Dallas | 119.6 | 113.7 | 6.0 | 122.7 | 113.2 | 9.5 | 119.9 | 110.8 | 9.1 | 118.4 | 115.7 | 2.7 |
| Milwaukee | 121.0 | 115.1 | 5.8 | 127.6 | 110.4 | 17.2 | 120.7 | 115.8 | 4.9 | 118.9 | 116.2 | 2.7 |
| LA Clippers | 120.3 | 115.2 | 5.1 | 123.1 | 113.4 | 9.7 | 120.2 | 116.2 | 4 | 119.4 | 115.1 | 4.3 |
| Phoenix | 119.7 | 115.2 | 4.5 | 123.6 | 116.9 | 6.7 | 119.9 | 115.7 | 4.2 | 118.3 | 114.3 | 4 |
| New Orleans | 117.7 | 113.9 | 3.8 | 115.8 | 118.2 | -2.4 | 119.1 | 113 | 6.1 | 117.4 | 113 | 4.4 |
| Indiana | 121.1 | 117.3 | 3.8 | 120.1 | 115 | 5.1 | 120.8 | 116 | 4.8 | 121.6 | 118.9 | 2.7 |
| Orlando | 114.2 | 111.2 | 2.9 | 112.7 | 109.1 | 3.6 | 115.3 | 111.9 | 3.4 | 113.9 | 111.5 | 2.4 |
| LA Lakers | 117.5 | 115.5 | 2.0 | 119.2 | 116.2 | 3 | 116.7 | 114.9 | 1.8 | 117.5 | 115.7 | 1.8 |
| Cleveland | 115.0 | 113.2 | 1.8 | 116.2 | 112.7 | 3.5 | 113.8 | 113.8 | 0 | 115.3 | 112.9 | 2.4 |
| Sacramento | 117.0 | 115.3 | 1.7 | 115.6 | 111.5 | 4.1 | 117.8 | 116.1 | 1.7 | 116.9 | 116.1 | 0.8 |
| Miami | 113.8 | 112.5 | 1.3 | 116.1 | 111.7 | 4.4 | 111.6 | 112.5 | -0.9 | 114.4 | 112.7 | 1.7 |
| Chicago | 115.8 | 117.1 | -1.4 | 118.1 | 117 | 1.1 | 115.6 | 117.5 | -1.9 | 115.1 | 116.9 | -1.8 |
Examining the data, it's apparent that Boston is only marginally superior to teams like Oklahoma City, New York, and Denver according to our "Power" metric. So, what gives us such confidence in their championship prospects for 2024? The answer lies in historical performance patterns. Inspired by Ryan O'Hanlon’s method for predicting the Champions League victor, we have analyzed the last 20 NBA Champions. Using this historical data, we systematically eliminate current playoff teams that do not meet the criteria met by past champions, ultimately narrowing the field to a single, likely winner.
NBA Champion Measurement No. 1: Defense
Every NBA Champion since 2004 has ranked 17th or better in regular season defensive rating. You can't win the championship if you can't stop the opposition from scoring.
Teams Eliminated: Pacers, Bulls, Bucks, Kings
Teams Remaining: Celtics, Thunder, Knicks, Nuggets, 76ers, Wolves, Mavericks, Clippers, Suns, Pelicans, Magic, Lakers, Cavaliers, Heat, Warriors
NBA Champion Measurement No. 2: Offense
Every NBA Champion since 2004 has ranked 17th or better in the regular season offensive rating. Getting buckets is a must.
Teams Eliminated: Magic, Heat, Cavaliers
Teams Remaining: Celtics, Thunder, Knicks, Nuggets, 76ers, Wolves, Mavericks, Clippers, Suns, Pelicans, Lakers, Warriors
NBA Champion Measurement No. 3: Mid Defenses Must Have Elite Offense
If your defense rating is worse than 10th in the league, you must have a top 7 offensive rating.
Teams Eliminated: Suns, 76ers, Warriors, Mavericks, Lakers
Teams Remaining: Celtics, Thunder, Knicks, Nuggets, Wolves, Clippers, Pelicans
NBA Champion Measurement No. 4: Mid Offenses Must Have Elite Defense
If your offensive rating is worse than 10th in the league, you must have a top 4 defensive rating.
Teams Eliminated: Pelicans
Teams Remaining: Celtics, Thunder, Knicks, Nuggets, Wolves, Clippers
NBA Champion Measurement No. 5: Get to the Free Throw Line
You must rank better than 27th in Free Throw Attempt Rate.
Teams Eliminated: Nuggets
Teams Remaining: Celtics, Thunder, Knicks, Wolves, Clippers
NBA Champion Measurement No. 6: Opponent EFG% Better than 17th
Can you provide some kind of resistance?
Teams Eliminated: Knicks
Teams Remaining: Celtics, Thunder, Wolves, Clippers
NBA Champion Measurement No. 6: Rebound the Ball
No team has ever won a championship and ranked last, or second to last in defensive rebounding percentage.
Teams Eliminated: Thunder
Teams Remaining: Celtics, Wolves, Clippers
NBA Champion Measurement No. 7: Best Player Over 23 Years Old
Kawhi Leonard was 22 in 2014 if you want to make the argument that he was the Spurs best player that year, but I think that was more a conglomerate based on Duncan, Ginobili, Parker, and Leonard all carrying similar weights.
Teams Eliminated: Wolves
Teams Remaining: Celtics, Clippers
NBA Champion Measurement No. 8: Must Win More than 51 Games
Every NBA champion since 2000, except for the 2021 Milwaukee Bucks, have won at least 52 games in a regular, non-shortened, season. The 2021 Milwaukee Bucks were without Giannis for 21 games and without Jrue Holiday for 23 games, but anyways I think we can use that saying that I've never really understood here "The 2021 Bucks are the exception that proves the rule". Sorry Clips.
Teams Eliminated: Clippers
Teams Remaining: Celtics
While the beauty of sports lies in its unpredictability, the data clearly suggests that Boston is poised to win the 2024 NBA Championsip.
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