While there is ample evidence that teams can influence the type and location of shots that their opponents take, there is not a lot of evidence that teams have an influence on the percentage that a team shoots from three. Over the last 3 seasons, all but 5 teams have allowed between 34% and 38% on opponent three-point shooting. This season, teams are shooting an average of 35 three-pointers per game. A team allowing their opponents to shoot 30% on these shots would be "saving" an average of ~6 points per game vs a team that was giving up the league average of 36% from three. On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have a team allowing their opponents to shoot a blistering 41% from three, which if we adjust down to 36%, would improve a team's defense by ~5 points per game.
To rectify the issue of opponent hot or cold shooting early in the season, we have adjusted each team's defensive rating to what it would be if that team was allowing opponents to shoot the league average of 36% from three-point range. We have also added a slight adjustment to each team's offensive net rating to account for poor/good three-point shooting. Any team shooting below 34% from three was rounded up to 34%, while any team shooting greater than 38% was rounded down to 38%.
The chart below shows each team's current offensive, defensive, and net rating (taken from Basketball-Reference), as well as their luck adjusted offensive, defensive and net rating. Also included is each team's strength of schedule (the larger the number the tougher the schedule) and each team's 'Simple Rating', which is just their adjusted net rating plus their strength of schedule.
* last updated 01/12/2021
|3||Los Angeles Lakers||5.5||113.8||113.3||105.6||106.9||8.2||6.5||-1|
|10||New Orleans Pelicans||1.9||107.3||108.9||106.7||106.5||0.6||2.4||-0.5|
|13||San Antonio Spurs||1.4||108.9||107.8||110.9||106.4||-2||1.5||-0.1|
|15||Golden State Warriors||0.8||108.3||108.2||111||107.2||-2.7||0.9||-0.1|
|18||Portland Trail Blazers||-0.2||113.6||113.5||111.8||112||1.8||1.5||-1.7|
|26||Los Angeles Clippers||-2.7||115.3||110.5||114.3||112.7||1||-2.2||-0.5|
|28||Oklahoma City Thunder||-5.5||103.8||104.3||107.8||109.7||-4||-5.4||-0.1|
|30||New York Knicks||-9||103.3||103.3||108.8||113.5||-5.5||-10.2||1.2|