Luck Adjusted Net Rating

While there is ample evidence that teams can influence the type and location of shots that their opponents take, there is not a lot of evidence that teams have an influence on the percentage that a team shoots from three. Over the last 3 seasons, all but 5 teams have allowed between 34% and 38% on opponent three-point shooting. This season, teams are shooting an average of 35 three-pointers per game. A team allowing their opponents to shoot 30% on these shots would be "saving" an average of ~6 points per game vs a team that was giving up the league average of 36% from three. On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have a team allowing their opponents to shoot a blistering 41% from three, which if we adjust down to 36%, would improve a team's defense by ~5 points per game.

To rectify the issue of opponent hot or cold shooting early in the season, we have adjusted each team's defensive rating to what it would be if that team was allowing opponents to shoot the league average of 36% from three-point range. We have also added a slight adjustment to each team's offensive net rating to account for poor/good three-point shooting. Any team shooting below 34% from three was rounded up to 34%, while any team shooting greater than 38% was rounded down to 38%.

The chart below shows each team's current offensive, defensive, and net rating (taken from Basketball-Reference), as well as their luck adjusted offensive, defensive and net rating. Also included is each team's strength of schedule (the larger the number the tougher the schedule) and each team's 'Simple Rating', which is just their adjusted net rating plus their strength of schedule.

# Team WLSRORtgadjORtgDRtgadjDRtgopp3PpctnetRtgadjNetRtgSOS
1 Milwaukee Bucks 46 26 7.3 117.2 116.3 111.4 108.7 0.384 5.8 7.6 -0.2
2 Utah Jazz 52 20 6.2 117.6 116.5 108.3 110.1 0.341 9.3 6.4 -0.2
3 Phoenix Suns 51 21 5.4 117.2 117.4 111.3 111.9 0.354 5.9 5.6 -0.1
4 Philadelphia 76ers 49 23 5.3 113.2 113.2 107.6 107.6 0.36 5.6 5.5 -0.2
5 Denver Nuggets 47 25 5.3 117.1 117.2 112.1 111.8 0.363 5 5.4 -0.1
6 Brooklyn Nets 48 24 3.5 118.3 116.9 113.8 113.2 0.365 4.5 3.8 -0.2
7 Dallas Mavericks 42 30 2.9 115.4 115.4 113 112.5 0.365 2.4 2.9 0
8 Boston Celtics 36 36 2.8 114 114 112.5 111.1 0.374 1.5 2.9 -0.1
9 Los Angeles Clippers 47 25 2.6 117.6 114.3 111.2 111.6 0.356 6.4 2.7 -0.1
10 Portland Trail Blazers 42 30 2.4 117.8 117.1 116 114.7 0.372 1.8 2.4 0
11 Los Angeles Lakers 42 30 2.1 109.9 109.9 107.1 107.8 0.352 2.8 2.2 0
12 New Orleans Pelicans 31 41 2 113.5 113.4 113.8 111.5 0.38 -0.3 1.9 0.1
13 Memphis Grizzlies 38 34 1.8 112 112 111 110.3 0.367 1 1.7 0
14 Toronto Raptors 27 45 1.6 112 112 112.5 110.4 0.379 -0.5 1.7 -0.1
15 Golden State Warriors 39 33 1 111.1 111.2 110.1 110.2 0.359 1 1 0
16 Atlanta Hawks 41 31 1 115.7 115.7 113.3 114.6 0.349 2.4 1.2 -0.1
17 Miami Heat 40 32 0.5 111.2 111.2 111.2 110.6 0.365 0 0.5 -0.1
18 Indiana Pacers 34 38 0.4 112.4 112.3 112.4 111.9 0.366 0 0.5 -0.1
19 San Antonio Spurs 33 39 0 111 111 112.8 111.1 0.377 -1.8 -0.1 0.1
20 Washington Wizards 34 38 -0.6 111.2 111.4 113 112 0.369 -1.8 -0.6 0
21 Chicago Bulls 31 41 -1.3 111.1 111.2 112 112.4 0.356 -0.9 -1.2 0
22 Charlotte Hornets 33 39 -1.4 110.9 110.8 112.8 112.2 0.366 -1.9 -1.4 0
23 New York Knicks 41 31 -1.4 110.6 109.5 108.2 110.8 0.337 2.4 -1.3 -0.1
24 Sacramento Kings 31 41 -1.5 113.6 113.6 117.2 115.2 0.38 -3.6 -1.6 0.2
25 Minnesota Timberwolves 23 49 -2 109.5 109.6 115 111.8 0.392 -5.5 -2.2 0.2
26 Detroit Pistons 20 52 -4.2 108 108.1 112.5 112.3 0.362 -4.5 -4.3 0.1
27 Houston Rockets 17 55 -5 107.1 107.3 114.9 112.6 0.382 -7.8 -5.3 0.3
28 Cleveland Cavaliers 22 50 -5.7 105.8 106.1 114.4 112 0.383 -8.6 -5.9 0.2
29 Orlando Magic 21 51 -7.6 105.1 105.2 114.5 113.1 0.373 -9.4 -7.8 0.2
30 Oklahoma City Thunder 22 50 -9.7 103.5 103.5 114 113.6 0.364 -10.5 -10.2 0.4

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