Luck Adjusted Net Rating

While there is ample evidence that teams can influence the type and location of shots that their opponents take, there is not a lot of evidence that teams have an influence on the percentage that a team shoots from three. Over the last 4 seasons, 92% of teams have allowed between 34% and 38% on opponent three-point shooting. This season, teams are shooting an average of 35 three-pointers per game. A team allowing their opponents to shoot 30% on these shots would be "saving" an average of ~6 points per game vs a team that was giving up the league average of 36% from three. On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have a team allowing their opponents to shoot a blistering 41% from three, which if we adjust down to 36%, would improve a team's defense by ~5 points per game.

To rectify the issue of opponent hot or cold shooting early in the season, we have adjusted each team's defensive rating to what it would be if that team was allowing opponents to shoot around the league average of 36% from three-point range. We have also added a slight adjustment to each team's offensive net rating to account for poor/good three-point shooting. Any team shooting below 34% from three was rounded up to 34%, while any team shooting greater than 38% was rounded down to 38%.

The chart below shows each team's current offensive, defensive, and net rating (taken from Basketball-Reference), as well as their luck adjusted offensive, defensive and net rating. Also included is each team's strength of schedule (the larger the number the tougher the schedule) and each team's 'Simple Rating', which is just their adjusted net rating plus their strength of schedule.

# Team WLSRORtgadjORtgtm3PpctDRtgadjDRtgopp3PpctnetRtgadjNetRtgSOS
1 Golden State Warriors 18 3 8.9 113 113.1 0.367 100.4 103.4 0.324 12.6 9.7 -0.8
2 Utah Jazz 14 7 6.3 115.5 115.7 0.357 105.6 108.4 0.323 9.9 7.4 -1.1
3 Phoenix Suns 18 3 6 111.6 111.7 0.364 104 105.1 0.339 7.6 6.6 -0.6
4 Chicago Bulls 14 8 4.1 110.7 110.7 0.371 106.1 106.2 0.356 4.6 4.5 -0.4
5 Miami Heat 13 8 3.5 112 112 0.347 106.3 108.3 0.334 5.7 3.7 -0.2
6 Portland Trail Blazers 11 11 2.1 112.8 112.7 0.355 112.5 111.3 0.381 0.3 1.3 0.8
7 Indiana Pacers 9 14 2 108.2 109.2 0.33 106.9 107.4 0.345 1.3 1.9 0.1
8 Atlanta Hawks 11 10 1.5 113.4 113.5 0.369 110.7 112.3 0.336 2.7 1.2 0.2
9 Philadelphia 76ers 11 10 1.1 111 111 0.36 109.9 109.8 0.354 1.1 1.1 -0.1
10 Boston Celtics 11 10 0.5 107.5 109 0.326 105.9 107.5 0.334 1.6 1.5 -1
11 Denver Nuggets 10 10 -0.1 108.3 108.9 0.335 108.6 110.1 0.336 -0.3 -1.2 1.2
12 Cleveland Cavaliers 11 10 -0.1 106.7 107.2 0.336 105.7 107.8 0.329 1 -0.6 0.5
13 Los Angeles Clippers 11 10 -0.1 105.6 105.5 0.35 104 105.6 0.335 1.6 -0.2 0.1
14 Washington Wizards 13 8 -0.4 107.7 109.5 0.322 107.6 109.4 0.331 0.1 0 -0.4
15 Memphis Grizzlies 11 10 -0.6 109.8 110.5 0.334 114.2 112 0.389 -4.4 -1.5 1
16 Brooklyn Nets 15 6 -0.8 110.5 110.6 0.372 106.5 110.9 0.308 4 -0.3 -0.5
17 Toronto Raptors 9 13 -1 109.5 109.6 0.34 110.7 110.8 0.358 -1.2 -1.2 0.2
18 New York Knicks 11 10 -1.1 108.8 108.7 0.365 108.7 109.2 0.345 0.1 -0.5 -0.6
19 Dallas Mavericks 10 9 -1.3 107.2 108.2 0.332 109.7 109.8 0.365 -2.5 -1.6 0.3
20 Charlotte Hornets 13 10 -1.3 111.8 111.6 0.381 112.2 113.3 0.341 -0.4 -1.7 0.4
21 Milwaukee Bucks 13 8 -1.5 109.9 109.9 0.361 106.2 110.3 0.317 3.7 -0.4 -1.1
22 Minnesota Timberwolves 11 10 -1.9 107.7 108.6 0.333 106.1 110 0.315 1.6 -1.4 -0.5
23 Sacramento Kings 8 14 -2.6 108 109.9 0.322 111.9 113.1 0.339 -3.9 -3.2 0.7
24 Oklahoma City Thunder 6 14 -2.6 99.8 104 0.305 107.1 107.2 0.353 -7.3 -3.2 0.6
25 San Antonio Spurs 6 13 -2.9 106.4 106.2 0.342 108.2 108.2 0.35 -1.8 -1.9 -1
26 Los Angeles Lakers 12 11 -3.3 106.6 106.6 0.348 108.1 108.9 0.342 -1.5 -2.3 -1
27 Detroit Pistons 4 17 -3.4 100.3 105.3 0.295 110 109.4 0.376 -9.7 -4.2 0.8
28 New Orleans Pelicans 6 17 -5 105.5 105.7 0.337 112.1 112.2 0.37 -6.6 -6.5 1.5
29 Orlando Magic 4 18 -8.1 100.6 102.7 0.322 111.6 111.5 0.35 -11 -8.8 0.7
30 Houston Rockets 4 16 -9.1 100.4 101.6 0.329 108.7 110.8 0.332 -8.3 -9.2 0.1

Sign up for our newsletter

Be the first to know about new features, upcoming releases and exclusive insights.

We care about the protection of your data.
We will never sell your information.