Using data from our Similarity Finder, which finds the most similar seasons in NBA history to a players current season, to rank all the players in the 2023 Rising Stars Challenge based on their future potential.

Whose Star will Shine Brightest?

February 17, 2023

Which 2023 Rising Star has the brightest future ahead of them? We will use data from our Similarity Finder, which finds the most similar seasons in NBA history to a players current season, to rank all the players in the 2023 Rising Stars Challenge based on their future potential. For the purposes of this exercise, we will be comparing the rising stars to all players with > 500 minutes played since 1978 within 1 year in age of the player in question. This gives us a nice base of players to use to project a player going forward. The gist of it, using Paolo as an example, is that we find the most similar players to him at his current age, and then we see how those players performed in their prime age seasons. This gives us an estimated peak offensive and defensive crafted plus minus, as we separate out offensive and defensive comps.

Jalen Green
SG, Houston Rockets
Offense: 3.0 | Defense: -0.1 | Overall: 2.9
Most Similar: Devin Booker, RJ Barrett, Andrew Wiggins
Scottie Barnes
PF, Toronto Raptors
Offense: 1.9 | Defense: 0.6 | Overall: 2.5
Most Similar: Aaron Gordon, Chris Webber, Jared Sullinger
Franz Wagner
PF, Orlando Magic
Offense: 3.1 | Defense: -0.6 | Overall: 2.5
Most Similar: Wally Sczerbiak, Keldon Johnson, Jamal Murray
Josh Giddey
SG, Oklahoma City Thunder
Offense: 2.0 | Defense: 0.5 | Overall: 2.5
Most Similar: Brandon Ingram, Shaun Livingston, Antoine Walker
Evan Mobley
PF/C, Cleveland Cavaliers
Offense: 0.6 | Defense: 1.8 | Overall: 2.4
Most Similar: Andrew Bogut, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Tim Duncan
Walker Kessler
C, Utah Jazz
Offense: 0.3 | Defense: 1.7 | Overall: 2.0
Most Similar: Ivica Zubac, Onyeka Okongwu, Jarrett Allen
Paolo Banchero
PF, Orlando Magic
Offense: 1.9 | Defense: 0.0 | Overall: 1.9
Most Similar: LeBron James, Jerry Stackhouse, Lamar Odom
Alperen Sengun
C, Houston Rockets
Offense: 0 | Defense: 1.8 | Overall: 1.8
Most Similar: Andris Biedrins, Donnell Harvey, Jarrett Allen
Jalen Duren
C, Detroit Pistons
Offense: 0.7 | Defense: 1.0 | Overall: 1.7
Most Similar: Derrick Favors, Al Jefferson, Tyson Chandler
Tari Eason
SF, Houston Rockets
Offense: 0.1 | Defense. 1.6 | Overall: 1.7
Most Similar: Markieff Morris, Paul Thompson, Paul George
Jaden Ivey
SG, Detroit Pistons
Offense: 1.9 | Defense: -.5 | Overall: 1.4
Most Similar: RJ Barrett, De'Aaron Fox, Dennis Smith Jr.
AJ Griffin
SF, Atlanta Hawks
Offense: 1.5 | Defense: -.1 | Overall: 1.4
Most Similar: Mike Miller, Zaire Williams, Kevin Huerter
Bones Hyland
PG, LA Clippers
Offense: 1.7 | Defense: -.4 | Overall: 1.3
Most Similar: Mo Williams, Trey Burke, Deron Williams
Trey Murphy III
SF, New Orleans Pelicans
Offense: 0.9 | Defense: 0.2 | Overall: 1.1
Most Similar: Cam Johnson, Nicolas Batum, Allen Crabbe
Jabari Smith Jr.
PF, Houston Rockets
Offense: 0.3 | Defense: 0.7 | Overall: 1.0
Most Similar: Michael Kidd-Gilchrest, Yi Jianlian, Bobby Portis
Bennedict Mathurin
SG, Indiana Pacers
Offense: 1.5 | Defense: -0.6 | Overall: 0.9
Most Similar: Alec Burks, Harold Minor, Andrew Wiggins
Jose Alvarado
PG, New Orleans Pelicans
Offense: 0.2 | Defense: 0.8 | Overall: 0.9
Most Similar: Rodrigue Beaubois, Lorenzo Romar, Mookie Blaylock
Jeremy Sochan
PF, San Antonio Spurs
Offense: 0.5 | Defense: 0.3 | Overall: 0.8
Most Similar: Jarrett Culver, Josh Jackson, R.J. Hampton
Quentin Grimes
SG, New York Knicks
Offense: 0.8 | Defense: 0.0 | Overall: 0.8
Most Similar: Tim Hardaway Jr., Austin Reaves, Sterling Brown
Jalen Williams
SF, Oklahoma City Thunder
Offense: 0.1 | Defense: 0.5 | Overall: 0.6
Most Similar: Jalen Brown, Darius Miles, Talen Horton-Tucker
Andrew Nembhard
PG, Indiana Pacers
Offense: 0.4 | Defense: 0.1 | Overall: 0.5
Most Similar: Langston Galloway, Tony Bennett, Steve Colter
Keegan Murray
PF, Sacramento Kings
Offense: 0 | Defense: 0.2 | Overall: 0.2
Most Similar: Martell Webster, Cameron Johnson, Terence Ross
Ayo Dosunmu
PG/SG, Chicago Bulls
Offense: -0.5 | Defense: 0.0 | Overall: -0.5
Most Similar: Sterling Bown, Jerome Robinson, Shaun Livingston
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