Welcome to the 2023 Crafted NBA Draft Guide, where we project players by finding the most similar players from past drafts and using that information to project their performance going forward. This forms the crux of our projections, but we also incorporate the Rookie Scale's consensus top 60 as a form of regression. Please note that statistical projections for players outside of college basketball are not yet available.
Using measurements alone, it can be challenging to accurately gauge the size of a prospect. For example, if I tell you that Ausar Thompson is 6'5.75" with a 7' wingspan and weighs 218 pounds, it may provide some understanding of his size. However, envisioning how he would look on an NBA floor remains difficult. Now, consider this: the most similar sized players to Ausar, such as Cam Reddish, Tauraean Prince, Cade Cunningham, and Thanasis Antetokounmpo, provide a much clearer idea of his size on an NBA court next season. To determine these similarities, we compare the measurements of each player in the 2023 draft class to those of current players in our database. We then analyze the matchup data of the similar players from the NBA website to ascertain their average defensive matchup position (e.g., 1 for PG, 2 for SG). This information helps us anticipate the defensive position Ausar is most likely to guard at the NBA level. In his case, he comes in at a defensive position of 2.7, indicating that he is primarily suited to guard Small Forwards but can also switch effectively across 3-4 positions.
This aspect is more straightforward and involves comparing each NCAA player's advanced stats to the college seasons of all NBA players since 2010 to find the most similar players. The offensive stats considered include O-PRPG, 2P%, 3P%, FG%, Close 2%, Far 2%, Far2Ar, Close2Ar, DunkAr, 3PAr, FTAr, FT%, PER, TS%, EFG%, ORB%, AST%, TOV%, USG%, and OBPM. Defensive stats include DRB%, STL%, BLK%, DBPM, Foul Rate, DRtg, and D-PRPG (all stats from https://barttorvik.com/). For example, we analyze Jarace Walker's stats and compare them to all the other college seasons in our database. We find that the most similar offensive seasons (at the same age) are Justin Jackson, Quinndary Weatherspoon, Tony Mitchell, Deshaun Thomas, and Robert Woodard. Similarly, the most similar defensive seasons (at the same age) are Keita Bates-Diop, Gary Clark, Tyler Lydon, Keegan Murray, Peyton Watson, Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tillman, and Pascal Siakam. These defensive comparisons indicate some noteworthy company, while the offense may require some improvement.
To determine the players' rating, we use the 20 most similar offensive players (10 at the same age, 10 at any age) and calculate their career 3-year RAPM average. We follow the same process using each player's 20 most similar defensive players. The offensive and defensive ratings are combined to provide an estimate of the player's overall performance (+/-). Considering potential small sample-size issues, this estimation is then combined with the Rookie Scale's Consensus Top 60 rankings to generate our Crafted NBA draft ranking.
Age: 19.2 Height: 7'3" Wingspan: 8' Weight: 229 +-: N/A Pelton: 1st Consensus: 1st Offensive Comps: N/A Defensive Comps: N/A Anthropometric Comps: Mo Bamba, Bol Bol, Christian Koloko, Kristaps Porzingis Defensive Position: PF/C
Age: 18.7 Height: 6'5.75" Wingspan: 6'8.5 Weight: 235 +-: 3rd Pelton: 3rd Consensus: 6th Offensive Comps: Jabari Bird, Miles Bridges, Rashad Vaughn, Harrison Barnes, Zach LaVine Defensive Comps: Seth Tuttle, Troy Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kelly Oubre, Tobias Harris Anthropometric Comps: Grant Williams, Jae Crowder, Udonis Haslem, Vlatko Cancar, Lamar Stevens Defensive Position: SF/PF
Age: 19.1 Height: 6'2" Wingspan: 6'9" Weight: 195 +-: N/A Pelton: 10 Consensus: 3 Offensive Comps: N/A Defensive Comps: N/A Anthropometric Comps: Miles McBride, Gary Payton II, Damian Lillard, TyTy Washington Jr., Jaden Ivey Defensive Position: PG/SG
Age: 20.3 Height: 6'8" Wingspan: 6'11" Weight: 200 +-: 6th Pelton: 2nd Consensus: 2nd Offensive Comps: Jamal Murray, Sam Dekker, R.J. Hunter, Bennedict Mathurin, Tim Hardaway Jr, Malik Monk Defensive Comps: Franz Wagner, Otto Porter, Trey Lyles, Obi Toppin, Aaron Gordon Anthropometric Comps: Kendall Brown, Furkan Korkmaz, Kessler Edwards, Leandro Bolmaro, Andrew Wiggins Defensive Position: SG/SF
Age: 20.1 Height: 6'5.75" Wingspan: 7' Weight: 214 +-: N/A Pelton: Consensus: 4th Offensive Comps: N/A Defensive Comps: N/A Anthropometric Comps: Troy Brown Jr., Andre Iguodala, Romeo Langford, Cam Reddish Defensive Position: SF
Age: 19.1 Height: 6'11.5" Wingspan: 7'6.25" Weight: 230 +-: 1st Pelton: 9th Consensus: 18th Offensive Comps: TJ Leaf, T.J. Warren, Justin Patton, Obi Toppin, Mark Williams, Kendall Brown, Deandre Ayton Defensive Comps: Jaren Jackson Jr., Gorgui Dieng, Daniel Orton, Jaxson Hayes, Walker Kessler, Jordan Bell Anthropometric Comps: Taj Gibson, Mo Bamba, Pascal Siakam, Serge Ibaka, Keita Bates-Diop Defensive Position: PF/C
Age: 19.3 Height: 6'6.25" Wingspan: 6'8.75" Weight: 204 +-: 4th Pelton: 5th Consensus: 10th Offensive Comps: Devin Vassell, Devin Booker, Gary Harris, Allen Crabbe, Gary Trent Jr., Terrence Ross, Sam Dekker, Saddiq Bey Defensive Comps: Reggie Bullock, Kendall Brown, Harrison Barnes, Jordan Hamilton, Saddiq Bey Anthropometric Comps: Reggie Bullock, Evan Fournier, Caris LeVert, Furkan Korkmaz, Terence Ross Defensive Position: SG/SF
Age: 20.1 Height: 6'5.75" Wingspan: 7' Weight: 218 +-: N/A Pelton: Consensus: 5th Offensive Comps: N/A Defensive Comps: N/A Anthropometric Comps: Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Cam Reddish, Taurean Prince, Cade Cunningham, Naji Marshall Defensive Position: SF
Age: 19.2 Height: 6'5.75" Wingspan: 6'7.5" Weight: 210 +-: 13th Pelton: 16th Consensus: 9th Offensive Comps: Nate Wolters, Edmond Sumner, Jordan Clarkson, Andrew Harrison, Deandre Bembry, Marcus Smart Defensive Comps: Dalen Terry, Josh Green, Christian Braun, Khris Middleton, Kendall Brown Anthropometric Comps: Kenrich Williams, Christian Braun, Amir Coffey, John Konchar, Quentin Grimes Defensive Position: SG/SF
Age: 19.5 Height: 6'6.5" Wingspan: 7'2.5" Weight: 249 +-: 11th Pelton: 11th Consensus: 7th Offensive Comps: Justin Jackson, Quinndary Weatherspoon, Tony Mitchell, Deshaun Thomas, Robert Woodard, Jeremy Lamb Defensive Comps: Keita Bates-Diop, Gary Clark, Tyler Lydon, Keegan Murray, Peyton Watson, Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tillman, Pascal Siakam Anthropometric Comps: Rudy Gay, Isaiah Stewart, Xavier Tillman, Larry Nance Jr., Tony Bradley Defensive Position: PF/C
Age: 19.3 Height: 6'8.25" Wingspan: 7'0.5" Weight: 214 +-: 25th Pelton: 6th Consensus: 8th Offensive Comps: Keita Bates-Diop, Chuma Okeke, Matthew Hurt, Malik Beasley, Keegan Murray, Omari Spellman Defensive Comps: Brandon Clarke, Grant Jerrett, Bobby Portis, Jalen Smith, Pascal Siakam, JT Thor Anthropometric Comps: Jarred Vanderbilt, Juancho Hernangomez, Kevin Knox II, Patrick Williams Defensive Position: SF/PF
Age: 18.7 Height: 6'9" Wingspan: 7'1.5" Weight: 210 +-: 2nd Pelton: 23rd Consensus: 25th Offensive Comps: Dylan Windler, Tyler Dorsey, Tyler Lydon, Bennedict Mathurin, Moses Moody, Bradley Beal, Khris Middleton Defensive Comps: Ivan Rabb, Jeremy Sochan, Isaiah Mobley, Jabari Smith, Jake Koch, Jaylin Williams Anthropometric Comps: Paul Reed, KZ Okpala, Darius Bazley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jayson Tatum Defensive Position: PF
Age: 19.5 Height: 6'4.25" Wingspan: 6'7.75" Weight: 187 +-: 8th Pelton: 23rd Consensus: 15th Offensive Comps: Khyri Thomas, Terence Davis, Quinndary Weatherspoon, Vince Edwards, Caris LeVert, Malaki Branham, Jaylen Nowell Defensive Comps: Josh Hart, Durand Johnson, Tyrone Wallace, Donte DiVincenzo, E'Twaun Moore Anthropometric Comps: Jalen Green, Malik Beasley, Delon Wright, Tyrese Haliburton, Keon Johnson Defensive Position: PG/SG
Age: 19.4 Height: 6'3.75" Wingspan: ? Weight: 185 +-: 7th Pelton: 7th Consensus: 12th Offensive Comps: Anthony Edwards, Malachi Richardson, Shabazz Napier, Coby White, Brandon Knight, Jaden Ivey Defensive Comps: Nigel Williams-Goss, Ryan Rollins, Nate Wolters, Ayo Dosunmu, Dejounte Murray Anthropometric Comps: Keon Johnson, Delon Wright, Alex Caruso, Alex Caruso, Tyrese Haliburton Defensive Position: PG/SG
Age: 19.3 Height: 6'9.25" Wingspan: 7'2" Weight: 213 +-: N/A Pelton: 24th Consensus: 19th Offensive Comps: N/A Defensive Comps: N/A Anthropometric Comps: Jarred Vanderbilt, Jalen Smith, Christian Wood, Nic Claxton, Paul Reed Defensive Position: PF/C
Age: 18.7 Height: 6'5.75" Wingspan: 7'1" Weight: 230 +-: N/A Pelton: 27th Consensus: 28th Offensive Comps: N/A Defensive Comps: N/A Anthropometric Comps: Draymond Green, P.J. Washington, Isaiah Roby, Isaiah Roby, O.G. Anunoby Defensive Position: PF
Age: 19.4 Height: 6'5.5" Wingspan: ? Weight: 235 +-: 23rd Pelton: 8th Consensus: 20th Offensive Comps: Miles Bridges, Quinndary Weatherspoon, Malik Beasley, Harrison Barnes, Doug McDermott, Deshaun Thomas Defensive Comps: CJ Elleby, Miye Oni, Dylan Windler, Aaron Nesmith, Derrick Williams, David Roddy Anthropometric Comps: Thaddeus Young, Grant Williams, Jeff Green, Aaron Gordon Defensive Position: PF
Age: 19.4 Height: 6'6.75" Wingspan: 6'11.5" Weight: 197 +-: 9th Pelton: 28th Consensus: 42nd Offensive Comps: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, E.J. Liddell, Andrew Wiggins, Aaron White, Josh Okogie, Isaac Okoro, Jerami Grant Defensive Comps: Jerami Grant, Kendall Brown, Wesley Iwundu, De'Andre Hunter, PJ Washington Anthropometric Comps: Andrew Wiggins, Dyson Daniels, Dylan Windler, Dalen Terry, Otto Porter Jr. Defensive Position: SF
Age: 20.8 Height: 6'4.5" Wingspan: 6'8" Weight: 199 +-: 18th Pelton: 25th Consensus: 27th Offensive Comps: Jalen Williams, Gary Payton II, Christian Braun, Georges Niang, Jaylen Nowell, Josh Richardson, Defensive Comps: Allen Crabbe, Jimmy Butler, Davon Reed, Chris Johnson, Aaron Wiggins Anthropometric Comps: Zach LaVine, Austin Rivers, Grayson Allen, Jaylen Nowell, Johnny Davis Defensive Position: SG
Age: 18.6 Height: 6'5.75" Wingspan: 6'10.25" Weight: 217 +-: 31st Pelton: 15th Consensus: 24th Offensive Comps: Joseph Young, Franz Wagner, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Ochai Agbaji, Kessler Edwards, Lonnie Walker IV Defensive Comps: Justinian Jessup, Aaron Wiggins, Gary Trent Jr., Joshua Primo, Wendell Moore Jr. Anthropometric Comps: Ochai Agbaji, Taurean Prince, Danny Green, Troy Brown Jr., Marcus Morris Sr. Defensive Position: SF
Age: 19.5 Height: 6'7" Wingspan: 6'8.5" Weight: 215 +-: 15th Pelton: 17th Consensus: 17th Offensive Comps: Cameron Johnson, Jordan Poole, Joe Harris, Pat Connaughton, Zach Norvell Jr., Aaron Nesmith Defensive Comps: Justin Jackson, Tony Snell, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Kenny Kaminski, Kezie Okpala Anthropometric Comps: Brandon Clarke, Kenyon Martin Jr., Tyrese Martin, Yuta Watanabe, Sam Hauser Defensive Position: SF/PF
Age: 19.4 Height: 6'2.5" Wingspan: 6'8.5" Weight: 195 +-: 34th Pelton: 4th Consensus: 11th Offensive Comps: Cory Joseph, Vince Edwards, T.J. McConnell, Dion Waiters, Ayo Dosunmu Defensive Comps: Jordan Adams, Lasan Kromah, John Wall, Jaden Springer, Glen Rice, Kyrie Irving Anthropometric Comps: Gary Payton II, TyTy Washington Jr., Damian Lillard, Jaden Ivey, Jordan Clarkson Defensive Position: PG/SG
Age: 20.1 Height: 6'3.75" Wingspan: 6'5.5" Weight: 204 +-: 21st Pelton: 14th Consensus: 37th Offensive Comps: Rodney Hood, Franz Wagner, Demetrius Jackson, Josh Hart, Malcolm Brogdon Defensive Comps: Chris Johnson, John Konchar, Keyontae Johnson, Bruce Brown Jr., Denzel Valentine Anthropometric Comps: Jalen Suggs, Donte DiVincenzo, Luke Kennard, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bryn Forbes Defensive Position: SG
Age: 18.9 Height: 6'4" Wingspan: 6'8" Weight: 185 +-: 37th Pelton: 13th Consensus: 13th Offensive Comps: Brandon Boston Jr., Talen Horton-Tucker, Carsen Edwards, Josh Christopher, Blake Wesley Defensive Comps: Davon Reed, Cameron Thomas, Jabari Bird, Jordan Clarkson, Shabazz Muhammad Anthropometric Comps: Delon Wright, Keon Johnson, Jalen Green, Tyrese Haliburton, Malik Beasley Defensive Position: PG/SG
Age: 22.1 Height: 6'6" Wingspan: 6'9.25" Weight: 226 +-: 43rd Pelton: N/A Consensus: 31st Offensive Comps: Dean Wade, Keve Aluma, Luke Harangody, Luke Maye, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl Defensive Comps: Abu Kigab, Landry Fields, Kenrich Williams, Dorian Finney-Smith, Wesley Iwundu Anthropometric Comps: Jake LaRavia, Doug McDermott, Jordan Nwora, Isaac Okoro, Tobias Harris Defensive Position: SF
Age: 22.1 Height: 6'4.25" Wingspan: 6'10.25" Weight: 217 +-: 38th Pelton: 35th Consensus: 15thOffensive Comps: Will Barton, Jerome Robinson, Jaylen Nowell, Aaron Holiday, Khris MiddletonDefensive Comps: Alec Burks, Corey Kispert, Desmond Bane, Bennedict Mathurin, Rashad Vaughn Anthropometric Comps: Ochai Agbaji, Romeo Langford, Andre Iguadala, Aaron Nesmith, Danny GreenDefensive Position: SG/SF
Age: 18.8 Height: 6'6" Wingspan: 7'2" Weight: 193 +-: N/A Pelton: Consensus: 22nd Offensive Comps: N/A Defensive Comps: N/A Anthropometric Comps: Dalen Terry, Brandon Ingram, MarJon Beauchamp, Otto Porter Jr., Andrew Wiggins Defensive Position: SF
Age: 22.1 Height: 6'7.75" Wingspan: 6'11.75" Weight: 213 +-: 56thPelton: 21stConsensus: 21st Offensive Comps: Robbie Hummel, Miles Bridges, Keita Bates-Diop, Jordan Nwora Defensive Comps: Aaron White, Kessler Edwards, Dalano Banton, Moe Harkless, Sam HauserAnthropometric Comps: Kevin Knox III, Jabari Walker, Juancho Hernangomez, Jarred Vanderbilt, Patrick WilliamsDefensive Position: SF/PF
Age: 23.1 Height: 6'8.25" Wingspan: 7'1" Weight: 240 +-: 10th Pelton: N/A Consensus: 34th Offensive Comps: Tai Wesley, Drew Timme, Neemias Queta, Max Mahoney, Ethan Happ, Jock Landale Defensive Comps: John Henson, Larry Nance Jr., Paul Reed, Xavier Tillman, Jordan Bell Anthropometric Comps: Al Horford, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Onyeka Okongwu, Ben Simmons, Zeke Nnaji Defensive Position: PF/C
Age: 19 Height: 6'5.5" Wingspan: 6'9.75 Weight: 224 +-: N/A Pelton: Consensus: 32nd Offensive Comps: N/A Defensive Comps: N/A Anthropometric Comps: Jordan Nwora, Doug McDermott, Isaac Okoro, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Justise Winslow Defensive Position: SF
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