Evaluating Each Team's Young Talent

Young Core - players must be 25 or younger and played at least 250 minutes in the last 2 seasons to qualify.

* Estimated Win Total - This is a very crude estimate based upon replacing players on a team with below average talent (a 26 win team) with the players listed for each team. We came to this number by taking an average team's minutes distribution, making their three highest minute players replacement level (using -2.5 plus minus as replacement level), and filling out the roster with a group of average NBA players (~ -.5 plus minus ). We then ran this roster through a simulated NBA schedule 100 times, and came out with about 26 wins. The main idea here is that the players from the Young Core replace the minutes played by the replacement level players from the 26 win team. While the win totals are very rough estimates, it works as a measure for comparing the talent between different teams.

*The Wins Above Replacement player projections come from our player projections, and update periodically throughout the season. While a player like Jayson Tatum is listed at a 9.6 peak WAR, this is what we consider his most likely outcome. It is just as possible that he goes over that 9.6 as he goes under. Our version of WAR uses 76 games played and 34 minutes per game as the upper limit, and adjusts down from there depending upon a player's position and ability. We use the following replacement level values:

  • Guards: 1.75
  • Wings: 2.35
  • Forwards: 2.35
  • Bigs: 2

MEM

Jaren Jackson Jr. 7
Ja Morant 6.6
De'Anthony Melton 6
Brandon Clarke 4.6
Desmond Bane 4.6

Projected Wins

55

BOS

Jayson Tatum 9.9
Jaylen Brown 5.5
Robert Williams III 2.9
Romeo Langford 2.5
Grant Williams 2

Projected Wins

49

PHX

Devin Booker 5.8
Deandre Ayton 5.2
Mikal Bridges 4.9
Cameron Johnson 4.4
Landry Shamet 2.2

Projected Wins

49

CLE

Jarrett Allen 6.6
Evan Mobley 5.6
Darius Garland 5
Lauri Markkanen 2.8
Isaac Okoro 2.6

Projected Wins

49

MIN

Anthony Edwards 6.3
Jarred Vanderbilt 5.9
D'Angelo Russell 3.8
Josh Okogie 2.9
Jaden McDaniels 2.3

Projected Wins

47

NOP

Zion Williamson 9.8
Brandon Ingram 3.9
Jaxson Hayes 2.9
Kira Lewis Jr. 2.6
Trey Murphy III 2.3

Projected Wins

47

DAL

Luka Doncic 10.3
Jalen Brunson 4
Frank Ntilikina 2.9
Josh Green 2.6
Moses Brown 0.3

Projected Wins

46

ATL

Trae Young 7.5
John Collins 5.4
Kevin Huerter 2.9
De'Andre Hunter 2.3
Onyeka Okongwu 2.2

Projected Wins

46

OKC

Josh Giddey 7.7
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 4.9
Luguentz Dort 2.9
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 2.2
Tre Mann 1.7

Projected Wins

45

HOU

Alperen Sengun 7.1
Jalen Green 4.2
Josh Christopher 2.7
Garrison Mathews 2.4
Kenyon Martin Jr. 2.3

Projected Wins

45

IND

Domantas Sabonis 5.1
Myles Turner 4.5
Chris Duarte 3.9
Oshae Brissett 2.2
Goga Bitadze 1.9

Projected Wins

44

TOR

Scottie Barnes 5.7
OG Anunoby 3.8
Gary Trent Jr. 2.9
Isaac Bonga 2.1
Malachi Flynn 2

Projected Wins

43

ORL

Franz Wagner 5.3
Wendell Carter Jr. 3.6
Jalen Suggs 2.6
Cole Anthony 2.5
Moritz Wagner 2

Projected Wins

42

NYK

RJ Barrett 3.9
Immanuel Quickley 3.8
Mitchell Robinson 2.9
Quentin Grimes 2.8
Obi Toppin 2

Projected Wins

41

LAC

Isaiah Hartenstein 6.8
Ivica Zubac 2.1
Terance Mann 2
Brandon Boston Jr. 2
Amir Coffey 1.8

Projected Wins

41

SAS

Dejounte Murray 6.1
Devin Vassell 4.3
Joshua Primo 2.2
Keldon Johnson 2
Drew Eubanks 0.4

Projected Wins

41

CHA

LaMelo Ball 8.1
Miles Bridges 3.8
P.J. Washington 2.3
Jalen McDaniels 0.8
Nick Richards 0.1

Projected Wins

41

DEN

Michael Porter Jr. 7.1
Bones Hyland 3.4
P.J. Dozier 2.7
Zeke Nnaji 0.7
Vlatko Cancar 0.1

Projected Wins

40

CHI

Lonzo Ball 5.2
Patrick Williams 2.2
Troy Brown Jr. 1.9
Coby White 1.8
Derrick Jones Jr. 1.7

Projected Wins

39

SAC

Tyrese Haliburton 5.6
Marvin Bagley III 2.3
Terence Davis 2.3
De'Aaron Fox 1.9
Davion Mitchell 1.2

Projected Wins

39

MIA

Max Strus 3.9
Bam Adebayo 3.8
Tyler Herro 2.4
Gabe Vincent 2
Omer Yurtseven 1.4

Projected Wins

39

WAS

Deni Avdija 5.2
Daniel Gafford 3.5
Corey Kispert 2
Aaron Holiday 0.4
Rui Hachimura 0.1

Projected Wins

37

PHI

Matisse Thybulle 3.7
Tyrese Maxey 2.7
Furkan Korkmaz 2.2
Paul Reed 1.4
Shake Milton 0.9

Projected Wins

37

DET

Cade Cunningham 4.4
Saben Lee 2.1
Isaiah Stewart 1.8
Hamidou Diallo 1.7
Josh Jackson 1.4

Projected Wins

37

GSW

Jonathan Kuminga 5.3
Jordan Poole 2.9
Kevon Looney 1.2

Projected Wins

35

BKN

Nic Claxton 3.6
Bruce Brown 2
Cam Thomas 1.9

Projected Wins

34

UTA

Donovan Mitchell 6.5
Miye Oni 1.2
Trent Forrest 0.2
Eric Paschall -0.2

Projected Wins

34

POR

CJ Elleby 2.3
Nassir Little 2.3
Anfernee Simons 1.3

Projected Wins

32

LAL

Talen Horton-Tucker 2.8
Malik Monk 2.3

Projected Wins

31

MIL

Jordan Nwora 0.8

Projected Wins

27

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