Evaluating Each Team's Young Talent

Young Core - players must be 25 or younger and played at least 250 minutes in the last 2 seasons to qualify.

* Estimated Win Total - This is a very crude estimate based upon replacing players on a team with below average talent (a 26 win team) with the players listed for each team. We came to this number by taking an average team's minutes distribution, making their three highest minute players replacement level (using -2.5 plus minus as replacement level), and filling out the roster with a group of average NBA players (~ -.5 plus minus ). We then ran this roster through a simulated NBA schedule 100 times, and came out with about 26 wins. The main idea here is that the players from the Young Core replace the minutes played by the replacement level players from the 26 win team. While the win totals are very rough estimates, it works as a measure for comparing the talent between different teams.

*The Wins Above Replacement player projections come from our player projections, and update periodically throughout the season. While a player like Jayson Tatum is listed at a 9.6 peak WAR, this is what we consider his most likely outcome. It is just as possible that he goes over that 9.6 as he goes under. Our version of WAR uses 76 games played and 34 minutes per game as the upper limit, and adjusts down from there depending upon a player's position and ability. We use the following replacement level values:

  • Guards: 1.75
  • Wings: 2.35
  • Forwards: 2.35
  • Bigs: 2

MEM

De'Anthony Melton 7.6
Ja Morant 7.2
Jaren Jackson Jr. 6.9
Desmond Bane 5.3
Brandon Clarke 4.7

Projected Wins

58

NOP

Zion Williamson 9.8
Jose Alvarado 5.1
Brandon Ingram 4.7
Trey Murphy III 4
Jaxson Hayes 3.5

Projected Wins

53

BOS

Jayson Tatum 12.1
Jaylen Brown 6
Robert Williams III 3.4
Payton Pritchard 2.3
Grant Williams 1.7

Projected Wins

52

PHX

Devin Booker 7
Mikal Bridges 5.5
Deandre Ayton 5.1
Cameron Johnson 4.4
Landry Shamet 1.9

Projected Wins

50

CLE

Jarrett Allen 6.2
Darius Garland 5.9
Evan Mobley 5.8
Isaac Okoro 3.1
Lauri Markkanen 2.7

Projected Wins

50

NYK

Immanuel Quickley 5.9
RJ Barrett 4.2
Quentin Grimes 4.1
Obi Toppin 3.8
Mitchell Robinson 3.5

Projected Wins

48

OKC

Josh Giddey 8
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 6
Luguentz Dort 2.9
Vit Krejci 2.5
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 2.4

Projected Wins

48

ATL

Trae Young 8
John Collins 5
Onyeka Okongwu 3.8
Kevin Huerter 3.7
De'Andre Hunter 1.6

Projected Wins

48

DAL

Luka Doncic 11.9
Jalen Brunson 3.7
Frank Ntilikina 2.8
Josh Green 2.6

Projected Wins

47

IND

Tyrese Haliburton 5.8
Isaiah Jackson 5.1
Myles Turner 4.6
Jalen Smith 2.8
Chris Duarte 2.8

Projected Wins

47

MIN

Anthony Edwards 6.2
Jarred Vanderbilt 5.3
D'Angelo Russell 3.1
Jaylen Nowell 2.7
Josh Okogie 2.7

Projected Wins

46

SAS

Dejounte Murray 6.4
Devin Vassell 4.6
Keldon Johnson 3
Joshua Primo 3
Romeo Langford 2.6

Projected Wins

46

ORL

Franz Wagner 7.2
Wendell Carter Jr. 4.2
Jalen Suggs 3.2
Chuma Okeke 2.1
Cole Anthony 2

Projected Wins

45

GSW

Jonathan Kuminga 7.1
Moses Moody 5.1
Jordan Poole 4.1
Kevon Looney 1.6

Projected Wins

44

CHA

LaMelo Ball 8
Miles Bridges 4.4
JT Thor 2.7
P.J. Washington 2.5
James Bouknight 0.7

Projected Wins

44

HOU

Jalen Green 5.3
Alperen Sengun 5.1
Garrison Mathews 2.4
Josh Christopher 2.4
Kenyon Martin Jr. 2.3

Projected Wins

43

TOR

Scottie Barnes 5.3
OG Anunoby 4.5
Gary Trent Jr. 3
Isaac Bonga 2.1
Malachi Flynn 1.8

Projected Wins

43

LAC

Isaiah Hartenstein 5.1
Ivica Zubac 3
Terance Mann 2.8
Brandon Boston Jr. 2.5
Luke Kennard 1.8

Projected Wins

41

DEN

Michael Porter Jr. 7.1
Bones Hyland 5.3
Zeke Nnaji 1.3
Markus Howard 0.1
Vlatko Cancar 0

Projected Wins

40

SAC

Domantas Sabonis 5.1
Terence Davis 3
Donte DiVincenzo 2.4
De'Aaron Fox 2.2
Davion Mitchell 1.3

Projected Wins

40

MIA

Bam Adebayo 5.2
Max Strus 2.8
Tyler Herro 2.6
Omer Yurtseven 1.7
Gabe Vincent 1.4

Projected Wins

40

UTA

Donovan Mitchell 6.5
Jared Butler 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 1.7
Trent Forrest 0.9
Udoka Azubuike 0.4

Projected Wins

40

CHI

Lonzo Ball 5.2
Coby White 2.3
Patrick Williams 2.3
Troy Brown Jr. 1.9
Derrick Jones Jr. 1.7

Projected Wins

39

DET

Cade Cunningham 5.1
Isaiah Stewart 2.1
Saben Lee 2.1
Hamidou Diallo 1.8
Saddiq Bey 1.6

Projected Wins

39

PHI

Matisse Thybulle 4.2
Tyrese Maxey 3.3
Isaiah Joe 2.4
Paul Reed 1.7
Furkan Korkmaz 1.4

Projected Wins

39

BKN

Day'Ron Sharpe 3.3
Bruce Brown 3.1
Nic Claxton 3.1
Cam Thomas 2

Projected Wins

38

WAS

Deni Avdija 4.8
Daniel Gafford 4.4
Corey Kispert 1.9
Rui Hachimura 0.4

Projected Wins

38

POR

Keon Johnson 3
Nassir Little 2.6
Justise Winslow 1.8
Anfernee Simons 1.5
CJ Elleby 1.3

Projected Wins

36

LAL

Talen Horton-Tucker 2.9
Malik Monk 2.3
Stanley Johnson 0.5

Projected Wins

32

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