Evaluating Each Team's Young Talent

Young Core - players must be 25 or younger and played at least 250 minutes in the last 2 seasons to qualify.

* Estimated Win Total - This is a very crude estimate based upon replacing players on a team with below average talent (a 26 win team) with the players listed for each team. We came to this number by taking an average team's minutes distribution, making their three highest minute players replacement level (using -2.5 plus minus as replacement level), and filling out the roster with a group of average NBA players (~ -.5 plus minus ). We then ran this roster through a simulated NBA schedule 100 times, and came out with about 26 wins. The main idea here is that the players from the Young Core replace the minutes played by the replacement level players from the 26 win team. While the win totals are very rough estimates, it works as a measure for comparing the talent between different teams.

*The Wins Above Replacement player projections come from our player projections, and update periodically throughout the season. While a player like Jayson Tatum is listed at a 9.6 peak WAR, this is what we consider his most likely outcome. It is just as possible that he goes over that 9.6 as he goes under. Our version of WAR uses 76 games played and 34 minutes per game as the upper limit, and adjusts down from there depending upon a player's position and ability. We use the following replacement level values:

  • Guards: 1.75
  • Wings: 2.35
  • Forwards: 2.35
  • Bigs: 2

Sign up for our newsletter

Be the first to know about new features, upcoming releases and exclusive insights.

We care about the protection of your data.
We will never sell your information.