Evaluating Each Team's Young Talent

Young Core - players must be 25 or younger and played at least 250 minutes in the last 2 seasons to qualify.

* Estimated Win Total - This is a very crude estimate based upon replacing players on a team with below average talent (a 26 win team) with the players listed for each team. We came to this number by taking an average team's minutes distribution, making their three highest minute players replacement level (using -2.5 plus minus as replacement level), and filling out the roster with a group of average NBA players (~ -.5 plus minus ). We then ran this roster through a simulated NBA schedule 100 times, and came out with about 26 wins. The main idea here is that the players from the Young Core replace the minutes played by the replacement level players from the 26 win team. While the win totals are very rough estimates, it works as a measure for comparing the talent between different teams.

*The Wins Above Replacement player projections come from our player projections, and update periodically throughout the season. While a player like Jayson Tatum is listed at a 9.6 peak WAR, this is what we consider his most likely outcome. It is just as possible that he goes over that 9.6 as he goes under. Our version of WAR uses 76 games played and 34 minutes per game as the upper limit, and adjusts down from there depending upon a player's position and ability. We use the following replacement level values:

  • Guards: 1.75
  • Wings: 2.35
  • Forwards: 2.35
  • Bigs: 2

DEN

Nikola Jokic 11.4
Michael Porter Jr. 7.7
Jamal Murray 6.5
Aaron Gordon 2.6
PJ Dozier 2.4

Projected Wins

57

NOP

Zion Williamson 9.1
Kira Lewis Jr. 6.5
Lonzo Ball 5.9
Brandon Ingram 5.1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 3.8

Projected Wins

56

MIN

Karl-Anthony Towns 7.8
Anthony Edwards 6.6
Naz Reid 4.3
Jarred Vanderbilt 4.2
Jaylen Nowell 3

Projected Wins

52

MEM

De'Anthony Melton 7.3
Ja Morant 5.5
Xavier Tillman 4.9
Jaren Jackson Jr. 4
Desmond Bane 2.9

Projected Wins

51

BOS

Jayson Tatum 10.2
Jaylen Brown 5
Robert Williams III 3.5
Aaron Nesmith 2.8
Payton Pritchard 2.6

Projected Wins

50

PHI

Ben Simmons 7.4
Matisse Thybulle 5.6
Furkan Korkmaz 4.7
Isaiah Joe 2.6
Tyrese Maxey 2.4

Projected Wins

49

DAL

Luka Doncic 12.2
Kristaps Porzingis 4.5
Jalen Brunson 3.4
Josh Green 2.4

Projected Wins

49

OKC

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 5.2
Theo Maledon 4.5
Luguentz Dort 4.4
Aleksej Pokusevski 3.9
Tony Bradley 3

Projected Wins

47

ATL

Trae Young 7
John Collins 5
De'Andre Hunter 3.7
Kevin Huerter 2.7
Cam Reddish 2.6

Projected Wins

47

ORL

R.J. Hampton 5.3
Jonathan Isaac 4.7
Chuma Okeke 4.5
Wendell Carter Jr. 3.4
Cole Anthony 3.1

Projected Wins

47

CHA

LaMelo Ball 9.5
Devonte' Graham 3.6
Cody Martin 2.6
Miles Bridges 2.2
P.J. Washington 2.1

Projected Wins

46

DET

Isaiah Stewart 6.3
Killian Hayes 5.2
Saddiq Bey 3
Josh Jackson 2.8
Saben Lee 2.5

Projected Wins

46

PHX

Mikal Bridges 5.1
Deandre Ayton 4.8
Devin Booker 3.8
Cameron Johnson 2.9
Jevon Carter 2.8

Projected Wins

45

SAS

Devin Vassell 4.5
Keldon Johnson 4.4
Dejounte Murray 3.8
Jakob Poeltl 3.6
Luka Samanic 2.7

Projected Wins

45

SAC

Tyrese Haliburton 5.7
De'Aaron Fox 5.5
Terence Davis 2.9
Marvin Bagley III 2.2
DaQuan Jeffries 1.9

Projected Wins

44

WAS

Isaac Bonga 4.4
Deni Avdija 4.3
Daniel Gafford 4.2
Garrison Mathews 2.3
Thomas Bryant 1.6

Projected Wins

43

IND

Domantas Sabonis 4.3
Goga Bitadze 3.5
Myles Turner 3.4
Oshae Brissett 2.5
Aaron Holiday 2

Projected Wins

42

CHI

Patrick Williams 5.1
Zach LaVine 3.3
Troy Brown Jr. 2.8
Coby White 2.5
Lauri Markkanen 2.2

Projected Wins

42

NYK

Immanuel Quickley 5.8
Mitchell Robinson 3.4
RJ Barrett 2.8
Frank Ntilikina 2
Obi Toppin 1.9

Projected Wins

42

GSW

James Wiseman 4.8
Nico Mannion 3.6
Jordan Poole 2.3
Andrew Wiggins 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. 2

Projected Wins

41

MIA

Bam Adebayo 6.3
Tyler Herro 3.6
Precious Achiuwa 2.1
Kendrick Nunn 1.7
KZ Okpala 0.9

Projected Wins

41

CLE

Jarrett Allen 4.7
Isaiah Hartenstein 3.3
Darius Garland 2
Dylan Windler 1.9
Dean Wade 1.6

Projected Wins

40

HOU

Christian Wood 3.7
Kenyon Martin Jr. 2.6
Bruno Caboclo 2.3
Kevin Porter Jr. 2.3
Dante Exum 1.9

Projected Wins

39

BKN

Nicolas Claxton 3.5
Bruce Brown 2.7
Chris Chiozza 2.4
Landry Shamet 2.1
Alize Johnson 1.2

Projected Wins

38

TOR

OG Anunoby 4.7
Gary Trent Jr. 2.1
Malachi Flynn 2.1
Freddie Gillespie 2
Stanley Johnson 0.7

Projected Wins

38

MIL

Donte DiVincenzo 5.3
Rodions Kurucs 1.5
Jordan Nwora 1.3
Bobby Portis 1.2

Projected Wins

35

UTA

Donovan Mitchell 5.3
Trent Forrest 1.6
Miye Oni 1.4

Projected Wins

34

LAC

Ivica Zubac 2.2
Terance Mann 2.1
Amir Coffey 1.6
Luke Kennard 0.8

Projected Wins

33

POR

Derrick Jones Jr. 2.6
Nassir Little 1.8
Anfernee Simons 1.2
Zach Collins 1.1
Harry Giles III -0.1

Projected Wins

33

LAL

Talen Horton-Tucker 4.5
Kyle Kuzma 1.2
Damian Jones -0.3

Projected Wins

31

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