Miami Heat

Franchise
Elite
All-Star
Starter
Rotation

Name	Pos	Age	Games	MPG	O Role	D Role	CraftedPM	WARP	Pts	Reb	AST	Stl	Blk
Jimmy Butler	SG	31	52	33.6	Secondary Ballhandler	On Ball Stopper	5.4 99%	7.26	21.5	6.9	7.1	2.1	0.3
Bam Adebayo	C	23	64	33.5	Glue Guy	Versatile Big	2.48 94%	5.72	18.7	9	5.4	1.2	1
Duncan Robinson	SF	26	72	31.4	Runaround Wing	Off Ball Wing	0.54 73%	3.79	13.1	3.5	1.8	0.6	0.3
Victor Oladipo	SG	28	33	32.7	Secondary Ballhandler	Off Ball Wing	1.19 83%	2.17	19.8	4.8	4.6	1.4	0.4
Kendrick Nunn	SG	25	56	29.5	Secondary Ballhandler	On Ball Stopper	-0.3 59%	2.06	14.6	3.2	2.6	0.9	0.3
Andre Iguodala	SF	37	63	21.3	Spotup Wing	Off Ball Wing	-0.25 60%	1.71	4.4	3.5	2.3	0.9	0.6
Tyler Herro	SG	21	54	30.3	Secondary Ballhandler	Off Ball Wing	-0.96 44%	1.49	15.1	5	3.4	0.6	0.3
Goran Dragic	PG	34	50	26.7	Secondary Ballhandler	Off Ball Wing	-0.87 46%	1.28	13.4	3.4	4.4	0.7	0.2
Trevor Ariza	SF	35	30	28		FALSE	0 64%	1.18	9.4	4.8	1.8	1	0.6
Nemanja Bjelica	PF	32	37	16.1	Spotup Wing	Versatile Big	-1.14 41%	0.49	6.5	3.4	1.9	0.4	0.1
Precious Achiuwa	PF	21	61	12.1	Roll/Cut Big	Versatile Big	-1.64 33%	0.42	5	3.4	0.5	0.3	0.5
Max Strus	SG	24	39	13	Spotup Wing	Hidden	-1.61 34%	0.3	6.1	1.1	0.6	0.3	0.1
Gabe Vincent	SF	24	50	13.1	Glue Guy	Off Ball Wing	-2.05 25%	0.23	4.8	1.1	1.3	0.4	0
Udonis Haslem	C	40	1	2.7		FALSE	-5.6 0%	0	4	1	0	0	0
KZ Okpala	SF	21	37	12.1	Spotup Wing	On Ball Stopper	-3.4 3%	-0.15	2.5	1.8	0.5	0.3	0.3

Projected Net Rating/100

9.6

Lineup Synergy Rating

5.8

Name	Pos	Age	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks	VersatilityRating	CraftedDPM
Jimmy Butler	SG	31	52	33.6	21.5	6.9	7.1	2.1	0.3	84	1.94 96%
Trevor Ariza	SF	35	30	28	9.4	4.8	1.8	1	0.6	69	0.87 81%
Duncan Robinson	SF	26	72	31.4	13.1	3.5	1.8	0.6	0.3	64	0.24 61%
Victor Oladipo	SG	28	33	32.7	19.8	4.8	4.6	1.4	0.4	54	1.09 85%
Bam Adebayo	C	23	64	33.5	18.7	9	5.4	1.2	1	49	1.73 94%

Each team's projected most versatile 5 man lineup, their projected net rating per 100 possessions, and the lineups synergy rating.

Short Story:

Remove the least versatile defenders, unless they happen to be a superstar.
Remove the horrible defenders, unless they happen to be a superstar.
Spit out the four best defenders of the remaining PG's, SG's and SF's.
Spit out the two most versatile defenders among the remaining PF's and Centers.
Spit out the 5 best defenders among the remaining 6 players.

This weeds out the defenders who would likely be exposed in a playoff matchup as well as the least switchable players (think Trey Burke/Greg Monroe). The idea was to find the best/most versatile lineup for those tough playoff matchups.

*Some teams may not have 5 players meet these qualification. These teams are usually garbage, or they have a position of great weakness and therefore did not have 5 players qualify.

Versatility Rating comes from a project put together by both Krishna Narsu and Patrick Miller of Nylon Calculus. A quick, concise explanation of Versatility Rating (higher is better) can be found on the glossary page.

Projected Net Rating/100

9.6

Lineup Synergy Rating

5.8

Name	Pos	Age	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks	CraftedPM
Jimmy Butler	SG	31	52	33.6	21.5	6.9	7.1	2.1	0.3	5.4 99%
Bam Adebayo	C	23	64	33.5	18.7	9	5.4	1.2	1	2.48 94%
Victor Oladipo	SG	28	33	32.7	19.8	4.8	4.6	1.4	0.4	1.19 83%
Duncan Robinson	SF	26	72	31.4	13.1	3.5	1.8	0.6	0.3	0.54 73%
Trevor Ariza	SF	35	30	28	9.4	4.8	1.8	1	0.6	0 64%

Esimated Win Total*

40.6

Name	Age	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks	CraftedPM	CraftedPeakPM	PeakWAR
Bam Adebayo	23	64	33.5	18.7	9	5.4	1.2	1	2.48 94%	3.09	6.3
Tyler Herro	21	54	30.3	15.1	5	3.4	0.6	0.3	-0.96 44%	1.59	3.6
Precious Achiuwa	21	61	12.1	5	3.4	0.5	0.3	0.5	-1.64 33%	0.71	2.1
Kendrick Nunn	25	56	29.5	14.6	3.2	2.6	0.9	0.3	-0.3 59%	0	1.7
KZ Okpala	21	37	12.1	2.5	1.8	0.5	0.3	0.3	-3.4 3%	-1.03	0.9

Young Core - players must be 26 or younger with a PeakWAR > 1 to qualify. Win Shares come from FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO Projections. Projections go out to 2025 and take each players peak projected season.

* Estimated Win Total - This is a crude estimate based upon adding these players to a team with slightly below average talent (a 26 win team). We came to this number by taking an average team's minutes distribution, making their three highest minute players replacement level (using -2.5 plus minus as replacement level), and filling out the roster with a group of average (~ -.5 plus minus) players. We then ran this roster through a simulated NBA schedule 100 times, and came out with about 26 wins.

The idea being that the players from the Young Core replace the minutes played by the replacement level players from the 26 win team.

*The Wins Above Replacement player projections come from our player projections, and update periodically throughout the season. While a player like Jayson Tatum is listed at a 9.1 peak WAR, this is what we consider his most likely outcome. It is just as possible that he goes over that 9.1 as he goes under.

Miami Heat

Stats & Analytics

Roster Talent Level

Playoff Early Exit

Roster

Versatile

Closers

Young Core

Projected Net Rating/100

9.6

Lineup Synergy Rating

5.8

Projected Net Rating/100

9.6

Lineup Synergy Rating

5.8

Esimated Win Total*

40.6

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