A crude estimation of a team's talent level as it relates to how they should be expected to perform with the current roster. Note that this does not take coaching or player synergy into account, but is strictly a look at the talent on the team. We have based this upon an article written by Seth Partnow for The Athletic where he examined ~10 years of team performance in terms of its relation to their talent level. Players are split up into tiers ranging from Franchise players at the top end to Bench players at the bottom end. A team's quality will thus depend on the mix of players it has in each of the various tiers.

The four tiers that teams will fall into are Title Contender, Playoff Lock, Playoff Probable, Play-In Range, and Lottery Bound.

Franchise
Elite
All-Star
Starter
Rotation

All Teams

Roster
Versatile
Closers
Young Core

Name	Pos	Age	GP	MPG	Pts	Reb	AST	Stl	Blk	CraftedOPM	CraftedDPM	CraftedPM	ProjWARP
Bam Adebayo	C	25	56	32.6	19.1	10.1	3.4	1.4	0.8	0.91	2.24	3.16	7.04
Caleb Martin	SG	27	60	22.9	9.2	3.8	1.1	1	0.5	-0.36	1.26	0.9	3.81
Duncan Robinson	SF	28	79	25.9	10.9	2.6	1.6	0.5	0.2	0.45	0.18	0.63	3.7
Gabe Vincent	SF	26	68	23.4	8.7	1.9	3.1	0.9	0.2	-1.49	0.29	-1.2	1.7
Jimmy Butler	SG	33	57	33.9	21.4	5.9	5.5	1.6	0.5	3.92	1.21	5.13	8.86
Kyle Lowry	PG	36	63	33.9	13.4	4.5	7.5	1.1	0.3	1.24	1.2	2.44	5.31
Markieff Morris	PF	33	17	17.5	7.6	2.6	1.4	0.4	0.1	-1.65	-0.76	-2.42	-0.64
Max Strus	SG	26	68	23.3	10.6	3	1.4	0.4	0.2	1.12	-0.54	0.58	3.56
Tyler Herro	SG	23	66	32.6	20.7	5	4	0.7	0.1	1.31	-1.41	-0.1	3.17
Udonis Haslem	C	42	13	6.4	2.5	1.9	0.3	0.1	0.1	-4.13	-0.08	-4.21	-3.23
Victor Oladipo	SG	30	8	21.6	12.4	2.9	3.5	0.6	0.1	-0.41	0.55	0.14	2.77
Dewayne Dedmon	C	33	67	15.9	6.3	5.8	0.7	0.4	0.6	-1.78	1.22	-0.56	1.91
Omer Yurtseven	C	24	56	12.6	5.3	5.3	0.9	0.3	0.4	-1.46	0.94	-0.53	2.59
Nikola Jovic	PF	19

Projected Net Rating/100

14.1

Lineup Synergy Rating

6.3

Name	Pos	Age	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks	VersatilityRating	CraftedDPM
Jimmy Butler	SG	33	57	33.9	21.4	5.9	5.5	1.6	0.5	97	1.21 84%
Caleb Martin	SG	27	60	22.9	9.2	3.8	1.1	1	0.5	91	1.26 85%
Kyle Lowry	PG	36	63	33.9	13.4	4.5	7.5	1.1	0.3	90	1.2 84%
Duncan Robinson	SF	28	79	25.9	10.9	2.6	1.6	0.5	0.2	58	0.18 59%
Bam Adebayo	C	25	56	32.6	19.1	10.1	3.4	1.4	0.8	28	2.24 96%

Each team's projected most versatile 5 man lineup, their projected net rating per 100 possessions, and the lineups synergy rating.

Short Story:

Remove the least versatile defenders, unless they happen to be a superstar.
Remove the horrible defenders, unless they happen to be a superstar.
Spit out the four best defenders of the remaining PG's, SG's and SF's.
Spit out the two most versatile defenders among the remaining PF's and Centers.
Spit out the 5 best defenders among the remaining 6 players.

This weeds out the defenders who would likely be exposed in a playoff matchup as well as the least switchable players (think Trey Burke/Greg Monroe). The idea was to find the best/most versatile lineup for those tough playoff matchups.

*Some teams may not have 5 players meet these qualification. These teams are usually garbage, or they have a position of great weakness and therefore did not have 5 players qualify.

Versatility Rating comes from a project put together by both Krishna Narsu and Patrick Miller of Nylon Calculus. A quick, concise explanation of Versatility Rating (higher is better) can be found on the glossary page.

Projected Net Rating/100

14.1

Lineup Synergy Rating

6.3

Name	Pos	Age	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks	CraftedPM
Jimmy Butler	SG	33	57	33.9	21.4	5.9	5.5	1.6	0.5	5.13 98%
Bam Adebayo	C	25	56	32.6	19.1	10.1	3.4	1.4	0.8	3.16 94%
Kyle Lowry	PG	36	63	33.9	13.4	4.5	7.5	1.1	0.3	2.44 89%
Caleb Martin	SG	27	60	22.9	9.2	3.8	1.1	1	0.5	0.9 75%
Duncan Robinson	SF	28	79	25.9	10.9	2.6	1.6	0.5	0.2	0.63 72%

Esimated Win Total*

34.2

Name	Age	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks	CraftedPM	CraftedPeakPM	PeakWAR
Bam Adebayo	25	56	32.6	19.1	10.1	3.4	1.4	0.8	3.16 94%	2.9	5.1
Tyler Herro	23	66	32.6	20.7	5	4	0.7	0.1	-0.1 61%	0.67	2.3
Omer Yurtseven	24	56	12.6	5.3	5.3	0.9	0.3	0.4	-0.53 56%	-0.85	0.8

Young Core - players must be 26 or younger with a PeakWAR > 1 to qualify. Win Shares come from FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO Projections. Projections go out to 2025 and take each players peak projected season.

* Estimated Win Total - This is a crude estimate based upon adding these players to a team with slightly below average talent (a 26 win team). We came to this number by taking an average team's minutes distribution, making their three highest minute players replacement level (using -2.5 plus minus as replacement level), and filling out the roster with a group of average (~ -.5 plus minus) players. We then ran this roster through a simulated NBA schedule 100 times, and came out with about 26 wins.

The idea being that the players from the Young Core replace the minutes played by the replacement level players from the 26 win team.

*The Wins Above Replacement player projections come from our player projections, and update periodically throughout the season. While a player like Jayson Tatum is listed at a 9.1 peak WAR, this is what we consider his most likely outcome. It is just as possible that he goes over that 9.1 as he goes under.

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Miami Heat

Stats & Analytics

Roster Talent Level

Play-In Range

Roster

Versatile

Closers

Young Core

Projected Net Rating/100

14.1

Lineup Synergy Rating

6.3

Projected Net Rating/100

14.1

Lineup Synergy Rating

6.3

Esimated Win Total*

34.2

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