Miami Heat

Franchise
Elite
All-Star
Starter
Rotation

Name	Pos	Age	GP	MPG	Pts	Reb	AST	Stl	Blk	CraftedOPM	CraftedDPM	CraftedPM
Bam Adebayo	C	24	22	723	18.5	9.9	3.3	1.3	0.5	0.02	1.5	1.52
Jimmy Butler	SG	32	29	971	21.4	6	6.1	1.9	0.4	4.26	1.2	5.46
Kyle Lowry	PG	35	39	1333	13.4	4.5	8.3	1	0.4	1.18	0.99	2.17
Duncan Robinson	SF	27	44	1222	11.8	3.2	1.5	0.7	0.2	0.58	0.58	1.16
Tyler Herro	SG	22	38	1250	20.7	4.9	4	0.6	0.2	1.34	-1.76	-0.42
P.J. Tucker	PF	36	41	1161	8.1	5.6	2.2	0.8	0.3	-1.29	1.18	-0.11
Victor Oladipo	SG	29								-0.9	1	0.1
Markieff Morris	PF	32	10	187	7.7	2.8	1.4	0.3	0.1	-1.24	-0.85	-2.09
Caleb Martin	SG	26	36	856	9.7	3.9	0.9	1.1	0.5	0.06	1.22	1.28
Gabe Vincent	SF	25	34	857	9	1.9	3.1	0.9	0.3	-0.89	0.58	-0.3
KZ Okpala	SF	22	15	244	3.7	2	0.7	0.2	0.3	-1.93	-0.15	-2.08
Max Strus	SG	25	36	862	11.6	3.4	1.3	0.3	0.2	1.63	-0.33	1.3
Dewayne Dedmon	C	32	40	672	6.7	6.2	0.8	0.4	0.5	-0.66	1.38	0.72
Udonis Haslem	C	41	7	52	3	2.1	0.3	0.1	0.1	-2.88	-0.23	-3.11
Omer Yurtseven	C	23	31	545	6.4	6.4	1.1	0.4	0.5	-1.66	1.06	-0.61

Projected Net Rating/100

13.5

Lineup Synergy Rating

6.1

Name	Pos	Age	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks	VersatilityRating	CraftedDPM
Jimmy Butler	SG	32	29	971	21.4	6	6.1	1.9	0.4	96	1.2 85%
Kyle Lowry	PG	35	39	1333	13.4	4.5	8.3	1	0.4	90	0.99 81%
Caleb Martin	SG	26	36	856	9.7	3.9	0.9	1.1	0.5	87	1.22 85%
Max Strus	SG	25	36	862	11.6	3.4	1.3	0.3	0.2	82	-0.33 40%
Bam Adebayo	C	24	22	723	18.5	9.9	3.3	1.3	0.5	24	1.5 89%

Each team's projected most versatile 5 man lineup, their projected net rating per 100 possessions, and the lineups synergy rating.

Short Story:

Remove the least versatile defenders, unless they happen to be a superstar.
Remove the horrible defenders, unless they happen to be a superstar.
Spit out the four best defenders of the remaining PG's, SG's and SF's.
Spit out the two most versatile defenders among the remaining PF's and Centers.
Spit out the 5 best defenders among the remaining 6 players.

This weeds out the defenders who would likely be exposed in a playoff matchup as well as the least switchable players (think Trey Burke/Greg Monroe). The idea was to find the best/most versatile lineup for those tough playoff matchups.

*Some teams may not have 5 players meet these qualification. These teams are usually garbage, or they have a position of great weakness and therefore did not have 5 players qualify.

Versatility Rating comes from a project put together by both Krishna Narsu and Patrick Miller of Nylon Calculus. A quick, concise explanation of Versatility Rating (higher is better) can be found on the glossary page.

Projected Net Rating/100

13.5

Lineup Synergy Rating

6.1

Name	Pos	Age	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks	CraftedPM
Jimmy Butler	SG	32	29	971	21.4	6	6.1	1.9	0.4	5.46 99%
Kyle Lowry	PG	35	39	1333	13.4	4.5	8.3	1	0.4	2.17 89%
Bam Adebayo	C	24	22	723	18.5	9.9	3.3	1.3	0.5	1.52 84%
Max Strus	SG	25	36	862	11.6	3.4	1.3	0.3	0.2	1.3 81%
Caleb Martin	SG	26	36	856	9.7	3.9	0.9	1.1	0.5	1.28 80%

Esimated Win Total*

39.5

Name	Age	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks	CraftedPM	CraftedPeakPM	PeakWAR
Bam Adebayo	24	22	723	18.5	9.9	3.3	1.3	0.5	1.52 84%	1.91	3.8
Max Strus	25	36	862	11.6	3.4	1.3	0.3	0.2	1.3 81%	1.17	3.8
Tyler Herro	22	38	1250	20.7	4.9	4	0.6	0.2	-0.42 57%	0.76	2.4
Gabe Vincent	25	34	857	9	1.9	3.1	0.9	0.3	-0.3 59%	-0.17	1.9
Omer Yurtseven	23	31	545	6.4	6.4	1.1	0.4	0.5	-0.61 55%	0.09	1.6

Young Core - players must be 26 or younger with a PeakWAR > 1 to qualify. Win Shares come from FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO Projections. Projections go out to 2025 and take each players peak projected season.

* Estimated Win Total - This is a crude estimate based upon adding these players to a team with slightly below average talent (a 26 win team). We came to this number by taking an average team's minutes distribution, making their three highest minute players replacement level (using -2.5 plus minus as replacement level), and filling out the roster with a group of average (~ -.5 plus minus) players. We then ran this roster through a simulated NBA schedule 100 times, and came out with about 26 wins.

The idea being that the players from the Young Core replace the minutes played by the replacement level players from the 26 win team.

*The Wins Above Replacement player projections come from our player projections, and update periodically throughout the season. While a player like Jayson Tatum is listed at a 9.1 peak WAR, this is what we consider his most likely outcome. It is just as possible that he goes over that 9.1 as he goes under.

Miami Heat

Stats & Analytics

Roster Talent Level

Playoff Lock

Roster

Versatile

Closers

Young Core

Projected Net Rating/100

13.5

Lineup Synergy Rating

6.1

Projected Net Rating/100

13.5

Lineup Synergy Rating

6.1

Esimated Win Total*

39.5

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