A crude estimation of a team's talent level as it relates to how they should be expected to perform with the current roster. Note that this does not take coaching or player synergy into account, but is strictly a look at the talent on the team. We have based this upon an article written by Seth Partnow for The Athletic where he examined ~10 years of team performance in terms of its relation to their talent level. Players are split up into tiers ranging from Franchise players at the top end to Bench players at the bottom end. A team's quality will thus depend on the mix of players it has in each of the various tiers.

The four tiers that teams will fall into are Title Contender, Playoff Lock, Playoff Early Exit, and Lottery Bound.

Franchise
Elite
All-Star
Starter
Rotation

All Teams

Roster
Versatile
Closers
Young Core

Name	Pos	Age	GP	MPG	Pts	Reb	AST	Stl	Blk	CraftedOPM	CraftedDPM	CraftedPM
Bradley Beal	SG	28	40	36	23.2	4.7	6.6	0.9	0.4	2.36	-0.4	1.96
Kristaps Porzingis	PF	26	51	29	20.2	8.1	2.3	0.7	1.6	2.1	1.31	3.41
Rui Hachimura	PF	23	42	22.5	11.3	3.8	1.1	0.5	0.2	-0.93	-1.51	-2.44
Thomas Bryant	C	24	27	16.3	7.4	4	0.9	0.2	0.8	-1.26	-0.54	-1.8
Deni Avdija	SF	21	82	24.2	8.4	5.2	2	0.7	0.5	-1.12	1.13	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	SG	28	77	30.2	13.2	3.4	1.9	1.1	0.3	-0.69	-0.21	-0.9
Kyle Kuzma	PF	26	66	33.4	17.1	8.5	3.5	0.6	0.9	-0.74	-0.65	-1.39
Ish Smith	PG	33	65	17.3	6.3	2.2	3.8	0.7	0.4	-1.7	-0.84	-2.54
Corey Kispert	SF	22	77	23.4	8.2	2.7	1.1	0.5	0.3	-0.15	-1.42	-1.57
Cassius Winston	PG	23	7	5.6	2	0.1	1	0	0	-0.2	-2.1	-2.3
Raul Neto	PG	29	70	19.6	7.5	1.9	3.1	0.8	0	-0.88	-0.34	-1.22
Daniel Gafford	C	23	72	20.1	9.4	5.7	0.9	0.4	1.4	0.44	0.7	1.14
Vernon Carey Jr.	C	20	7	6.3	2.9	1.7	0	0.3	0.1	-3.3	-0.2	-3.5
Isaiah Todd	PF	20	12	6.2	1.7	1	0.3	0.3	0.2	-2.97	-0.35	-3.32

Projected Net Rating/100

3.3

Lineup Synergy Rating

5.1

Name	Pos	Age	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks	VersatilityRating	CraftedDPM
Deni Avdija	SF	21	82	24.2	8.4	5.2	2	0.7	0.5	86	1.13 82%
Bradley Beal	SG	28	40	36	23.2	4.7	6.6	0.9	0.4	76	-0.4 37%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	SG	28	77	30.2	13.2	3.4	1.9	1.1	0.3	67	-0.21 46%
Kristaps Porzingis	PF	26	51	29	20.2	8.1	2.3	0.7	1.6	56	1.31 85%
Raul Neto	PG	29	70	19.6	7.5	1.9	3.1	0.8	0	29	-0.34 40%

Each team's projected most versatile 5 man lineup, their projected net rating per 100 possessions, and the lineups synergy rating.

Short Story:

Remove the least versatile defenders, unless they happen to be a superstar.
Remove the horrible defenders, unless they happen to be a superstar.
Spit out the four best defenders of the remaining PG's, SG's and SF's.
Spit out the two most versatile defenders among the remaining PF's and Centers.
Spit out the 5 best defenders among the remaining 6 players.

This weeds out the defenders who would likely be exposed in a playoff matchup as well as the least switchable players (think Trey Burke/Greg Monroe). The idea was to find the best/most versatile lineup for those tough playoff matchups.

*Some teams may not have 5 players meet these qualification. These teams are usually garbage, or they have a position of great weakness and therefore did not have 5 players qualify.

Versatility Rating comes from a project put together by both Krishna Narsu and Patrick Miller of Nylon Calculus. A quick, concise explanation of Versatility Rating (higher is better) can be found on the glossary page.

Projected Net Rating/100

5.6

Lineup Synergy Rating

5.5

Name	Pos	Age	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks	CraftedPM
Kristaps Porzingis	PF	26	51	29	20.2	8.1	2.3	0.7	1.6	3.41 95%
Bradley Beal	SG	28	40	36	23.2	4.7	6.6	0.9	0.4	1.96 85%
Daniel Gafford	C	23	72	20.1	9.4	5.7	0.9	0.4	1.4	1.14 78%
Deni Avdija	SF	21	82	24.2	8.4	5.2	2	0.7	0.5	0.01 64%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	SG	28	77	30.2	13.2	3.4	1.9	1.1	0.3	-0.9 49%

Esimated Win Total*

37.5

Name	Age	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks	CraftedPM	CraftedPeakPM	PeakWAR
Deni Avdija	21	82	24.2	8.4	5.2	2	0.7	0.5	0.01 64%	1.94	4.8
Daniel Gafford	23	72	20.1	9.4	5.7	0.9	0.4	1.4	1.14 78%	2.16	4.4
Corey Kispert	22	77	23.4	8.2	2.7	1.1	0.5	0.3	-1.57 35%	-0.22	1.9
Rui Hachimura	23	42	22.5	11.3	3.8	1.1	0.5	0.2	-2.44 19%	-1.63	0.4

Young Core - players must be 26 or younger with a PeakWAR > 1 to qualify. Win Shares come from FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO Projections. Projections go out to 2025 and take each players peak projected season.

* Estimated Win Total - This is a crude estimate based upon adding these players to a team with slightly below average talent (a 26 win team). We came to this number by taking an average team's minutes distribution, making their three highest minute players replacement level (using -2.5 plus minus as replacement level), and filling out the roster with a group of average (~ -.5 plus minus) players. We then ran this roster through a simulated NBA schedule 100 times, and came out with about 26 wins.

The idea being that the players from the Young Core replace the minutes played by the replacement level players from the 26 win team.

*The Wins Above Replacement player projections come from our player projections, and update periodically throughout the season. While a player like Jayson Tatum is listed at a 9.1 peak WAR, this is what we consider his most likely outcome. It is just as possible that he goes over that 9.1 as he goes under.

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Washington Wizards

Stats & Analytics

Roster Talent Level

Lottery Bound

Roster

Versatile

Closers

Young Core

Projected Net Rating/100

3.3

Lineup Synergy Rating

5.1

Projected Net Rating/100

5.6

Lineup Synergy Rating

5.5

Esimated Win Total*

37.5

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